Canada's housing recovery hits a bumpy patch in June

Canada's housing recovery took an uneven turn in June, with home resales sliding across five major markets even as Toronto posted its first sign of price stabilization in more than a year.

In a July 6 report, Robert Hogue, assistant chief economist at RBC Economics, said resales slipped in Fraser Valley, Calgary, Edmonton, Hamilton and Montreal last month, while Vancouver and Toronto extended gains that followed a disappointing winter.

Toronto shows signs of stabilizing, but condos lag behind

Toronto's benchmark home price held flat on a seasonally adjusted basis between May and June, its first monthly increase since January 2025, even though the index remained 5.4% below year-ago levels, Hogue reported.

Resales rose 1.4% from May but stayed 34% under pre-pandemic levels, underscoring how early the turnaround remains.

The recovery has not reached every corner of the market. As Canadian Mortgage Professional reported in a recent look at Toronto's stalled condo segment, condo prices in the city core and surrounding 905 region were still falling by a combined 6.4% as of May.

Toronto mortgage agent Taz Zaide of 6ix Mortgage Group previously told CMP that many buyers are waiting for further price cuts before committing.

"I don't see anybody trying to rush into it," Zaide said. "Lots of people want to sell, but people don't want to buy."

Meanwhile, GTA Realtors reported 1,714 condo apartment sales throughToronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB)'s MLS System in June. That's a 14.3% increase compared with June 2025, the strongest year-over-year gain among the four housing categories TRREB tracks.

Vancouver and Calgary chart different paths to recovery

Vancouver's home resales rose more than 3% month over month in June, RBC estimated, building on a 6.6% May advance. However, the benchmark price still fell 6% year over year, with detached homes and condos both down more than 7%.

That softness echoes CMP's coverage of Metro Vancouver's cooling condo market in May, where Greater Vancouver Realtors economist Andrew Lis described a market tracking closely to forecast, with "no obvious near-term catalysts" to shift conditions in either direction.

Calgary told a steadier story. New listings there fell 8% from May, tightening the market and helping slow price declines to 2.1% year over year, down from 3.2% in January, according to RBC.

Condos remained the weak spot, with transactions and benchmark prices down 20% and 9%, respectively, over the past year.

Montreal, meanwhile, saw resales ease nearly 4% from May as ownership costs tested affordability, though single-family prices still climbed 3.5% annually.

Hogue attributed the broader hesitancy to Canada's shrinking population, interest rates no longer falling, and lingering economic uncertainty, themes brokers have flagged in CMP's analysis of the country's weakening mortgage origination pace.

Whether Ontario and British Columbia's easing inventory translates into firmer prices, he said, will depend on how quickly demand and new sellers return to balance.

CMP

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