Arrears are rising — but Canada's mortgage wall is starting to crack

Mortgage arrears in Canada have climbed from pandemic-era lows, reaching 0.28% of outstanding mortgages — but a new economic analysis from Desjardins Economic Studies argues the peak may already be approaching. 

The report by senior economist Kari Norman concludes that the current uptick reflects a normalisation of conditions rather than the onset of a broader financial crisis, with a gradual decline in arrears expected through 2027 and 2028.

For mortgage brokers navigating client conversations around renewals, the picture is nuanced. Arrears, defined as mortgage payments at least 90 days overdue, rose from an exceptionally low starting point of 0.14% during the pandemic, when temporary income support, payment relief measures, and low borrowing costs together helped suppress delinquencies.

The climb since 2022 has drawn concern, but Desjardins frames it as an adjustment to higher borrowing costs rather than systemic stress.

Ontario has emerged as the sharpest pressure point. Ontario's mortgage delinquency rate climbed to 0.23%, overtaking the national average for the first time since at least 2012.

In Toronto, the rate jumped from 0.15% in Q2 2024 to 0.24% in Q2 2025, a roughly 60% year-over-year surge.

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has previously flagged Toronto and Vancouver as the markets most at risk, driven by high household debt, weaker resale conditions, and concentrated exposure among pandemic-era buyers who purchased at elevated prices with smaller equity cushions. 

Why the worst may be behind us

Desjardins identifies several forces that should ease pressure in the months ahead. Borrowers who locked in ultra-low five-year fixed rates in 2020 and early 2021 have largely already renewed.

Those yet to renew originated at rates that were already starting to inch up in advance of the first rate increase by the Bank of Canada (BoC), which occurred in early 2022, meaning the payment shock at renewal will be comparatively more modest.

Leading indicators of credit stress also point to stabilisation. By late 2025, mortgage holders had begun reducing credit card utilisation, while the share of borrowers missing payments had plateaued, suggesting that household financial stress may have peaked.

The mortgage stress test further buffers the system, as most borrowers qualified at rates well above those they now face.

The five-year Government of Canada (GoC) bond yield — the benchmark that drives fixed mortgage rate pricing — has eased from its 2023 peak. If bond yields continue to moderate through 2026, borrowers renewing into shorter-term fixed products could see meaningful payment relief.

Risks that could shift the outlook

The Desjardins report is not without caveats. A resurgence in inflation could lead to higher interest rates, increasing borrowing costs and eroding affordability before incomes have time to catch up.

At the same time, weaker growth, potentially linked to trade disruptions such as uncertainty around the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) review, could raise unemployment and place additional pressure on mortgage holders.

CMHC analysis similarly notes that delinquency pressures in the Greater Toronto Area are expected to remain elevated throughout 2026, with high debt levels and softening resale market liquidity contributing to growing financial pressures in Vancouver.

Investor-owned properties face particular exposure as rental demand and asking rents have softened alongside changes in federal immigration policy, weakening the income buffer that many landlord-borrowers rely on to service their debt. 

Despite those risks, Desjardins' base case holds. Stable labour markets, moderating inflation, and recovering home prices in most Canadian regions are all expected to support a plateau in arrears before a gradual decline through 2027 and 2028.

If that trajectory holds, it will represent a soft landing for a mortgage market that many feared was headed somewhere far worse.

CMP

We hope you are finding our Blog informative and enjoyable to read while keeping you up to date with the ever changing real estate market. 

Please feel free to contact me via Direct/Text or e-mail at any time and my team will be pleased to assist you, family members and friends with all your real estate needs. Referrals are always welcome and rewarded!

National home prices fall in Q2, but rebound could be near: Royal LePage

Canada's national aggregate home price fell 1.4% year over year to $814,900 in the second quarter of 2026, according to the Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Forecast released Tuesday.

A modest 0.2% quarterly gain and improving activity levels, however, suggest the market may be quietly gathering strength heading into autumn.

"After a sluggish first quarter, the spring housing market finally got rolling in May," said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage.

"Several regions are now seeing that uptick in momentum carry into summer, as buyers who held back earlier in the year re-enter the market. In many cases, what has kept consumers on the sidelines is not a lack of interest, but a lack of urgency."

Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver bore the steepest annual declines in Q2, falling 4.6% and 4.5% year over year to $1,101,700 and $1,164,100 respectively. However, both markets showed signs of stabilisation on a quarterly basis, with Toronto prices edging up 0.9% from Q1 2026.

The Greater Montreal Area moved in the opposite direction, posting a 4.9% annual gain to $650,500.

Quebec City led smaller markets with a 6.1% year-over-year increase, but recorded its first quarter-over-quarter price decline in more than three years — a sign that even the country's hottest regional markets are not immune to the broader drag on consumer confidence.

Soper noted that the narrowing price gap between Canada's most expensive and most affordable cities is beginning to shift the calculus for first-time buyers and newcomers.

Softening values in Toronto and Vancouver are creating openings for buyers previously priced out, potentially moderating the interprovincial migration that has defined the decade so far.

Region	Aggregate price			Single-family detached		Condominium		Q4 2026 forecast vs Q4 2025
	Q2 2026	YoY	QoQ	Median price	YoY	Median price	YoY
Greater Toronto Area	$1,101,700	−4.6%	+0.9%	$1,396,500	−3.6%	$660,000	−5.7%	−2.0%
Greater Vancouver	$1,164,100	−4.5%	−0.9%	$1,649,200	−5.2%	$721,000	−5.1%	−3.5%
Ottawa	$789,800	+1.0%	+1.8%	$904,300	+1.2%	$402,900	−1.1%	+3.0%
Greater Montreal Area	$650,500	+4.9%	+0.7%	$760,800	+5.7%	$495,800	+3.2%	+5.0%
Calgary	$695,300	−0.2%	+0.9%	$814,600	+1.0%	$258,600	−4.0%	+2.5%
Edmonton	$482,400	−0.4%	+2.1%	$531,700	+0.1%	$209,600	−3.7%	+4.0%
Halifax	$528,600	−0.5%	+0.6%	$605,600	−0.2%	$399,100	−2.2%	+4.0%
Winnipeg	$429,400	+3.2%	+1.2%	$470,400	+2.6%	$277,700	+2.1%	+5.0%
Quebec City	$465,800	+6.1%	−2.0%First QoQ decline in 3+ yrs	$497,800	+6.3%	$343,400	+4.6%	+8.0%
Regina	$405,300	+1.8%	+1.9%	$447,300	+1.5%	$233,500	+5.6%	+4.0%

Source: Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Forecast, Q2 2026. Price data includes resale and new build, provided by RPS Real Property Solutions. All figures in Canadian dollars.

Renewals and rate uncertainty

The Bank of Canada's fifth consecutive rate hold keeps its policy rate at 2.25%, unchanged since October 2025. That stability has brought a degree of predictability to borrowing costs, even as Canada's Consumer Price Index climbed to 3.2% in May 2026, its highest reading since January 2024, driven largely by energy prices tied to hostilities in the Middle East, according to Statistics Canada.

Against that backdrop, the final wave of pandemic-era mortgage renewals is nearing its conclusion. The Bank of Canada estimates roughly 12% of all outstanding mortgages — predominantly five-year fixed-rate terms originated at pandemic-era lows — will come up for renewal by end of 2027, with borrowers facing average payment increases of approximately 15%. As of Q4 2025, Canada's national mortgage delinquency rate stands at 0.24%.

"The over-blown pandemic mortgage renewal scare is all but over and most Canadians have weathered the storm," said Soper.

"Rising incomes and a resilient labour market continue to work in homeowners' favour."

The Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) uncertainty adds a further layer of caution. On July 1, the US declined to extend the agreement for a new 16-year term, initiating a period of annual reviews.

Economists and mortgage professionals monitoring the Bank of Canada's rate path say the trade ambiguity compounds existing hesitation among potential buyers.

"For Canadian consumers, ambiguity surrounding CUSMA is another reason to pause and reassess before making major financial commitments, including the decision to buy or sell a home," Soper said.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 2.0% in Q4 2026 compared to the same quarter last year, a modest but meaningful signal that a delayed spring may yet set the stage for a more active second half of the year.

CMP

We hope you are finding our Blog informative and enjoyable to read while keeping you up to date with the ever changing real estate market. 

Please feel free to contact me via Direct/Text or e-mail at any time and my team will be pleased to assist you, family members and friends with all your real estate needs. Referrals are always welcome and rewarded!

Returning Canadians, US buyers set their sights on Toronto's housing market

Prime Minister Mark Carney says Canada’s old relationship with the United States is “over” – and the cross-border tensions that erupted last year are also convincing many Canadians to reassess their property holdings in the US, with many reportedly ready to sell up and reinvest in Canada.

Last August, a survey of Canadian snowbirds conducted by Burson for Royal LePage found 54% of Canadians who own US residential property were considering selling within a year, with 62% of that group citing the current US political administration as the main driver. Roughly a third of sellers said they planned to direct the proceeds into Canadian real estate.

The main reasons for that political discord are no secret: a wave of tariffs launched by US president Donald Trump after taking office, coupled with his repeated remarks that Canada should become the US’s so-called 51st state.

And even though Canada’s national housing market has struggled to find its feet so far in 2026, some mortgage industry members have noted higher interest from Canadians who had moved south of the border but are now weighing up a move back home.

Drew Donaldson (pictured top), the Toronto-based founder and chief executive officer at Donaldson Capital, told Canadian Mortgage Professional his firm is fielding a growing share of business from people relocating into the Greater Toronto Area (GTA).

That cohort includes not just Canadians hoping to return after a stint in the US, but also Americans who see opportunity in the Toronto market because of a stronger US dollar and the opportunity to snap up deals.

“We seem to be getting [interest] from Americans that are buying in the Toronto market as of late – relocations and things like that – and people who are originally Canadian that may be moving back,” he said.

Why more Americans and expat Canadians are considering Toronto

Much is made of the brain drain from Canada to the US, but while the flow going the other way is less noteworthy, Donaldson still sees it as a positive trend for the Toronto market.

“People only talk about all the people exiting Toronto to go to the US,” he said. “And I agree that there is a large cohort of people doing that, but there’s also some flowing back the other way.”

While the political factors grab headlines, Donaldson sees other reasons, including currency advantages and job considerations, as key drivers of the trend.

“I think it’s relocation with their jobs and liking how low the Canadian dollar is,” he said. “Some of those people who do move [to the US], sometimes two years later they move back.”

Canada's federal restriction on non-resident buyers, the Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act, remains in force until January 1, 2027, and generally blocks non-Canadians from buying residential properties of three units or fewer inside census metropolitan areas, a category that includes the GTA.

The ban doesn't apply to larger buildings with four or more dwelling units. But the rules carry exemptions wide enough to cover much of the American demand Donaldson is describing: non-Canadians holding a valid work permit can buy one residential property, provided the permit has at least 183 days of validity remaining at the time of purchase, with no requirement to prove full-time employment or submit tax filings.

Non-Canadians purchasing jointly with a Canadian spouse or common-law partner are exempt as well, meaning an American relocating for work, or buying alongside a Canadian partner, can legally purchase in Toronto despite the ban still being in effect.

Financing challenges for cross-border buyers

The process to secure a mortgage for a buyer coming from south of the border isn’t necessarily any more complex than for someone who’s already based in Canada, although compliance timing can be a friction point.

Funds arriving from the US are subject to the same anti-money laundering scrutiny as funds from any other country, regardless of the closeness of the two economies.

Canadian financial institutions are required to verify the source of large incoming funds under the Proceeds of Crime (Money Laundering) and Terrorist Financing Act (PCMLTFA), which is enforced by the Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada (FINTRAC).

A lead time of 30 to 45 days applies regardless of whether the buyer is a returning Canadian or first-time American purchaser, and those who don’t plan for it can run into closing delays.

That means the biggest advantage mortgage brokers can often offer cross-border buyers isn't necessarily a particular rate or product, but rather familiarity with how to sequence financing, currency conversion and compliance checks so a cross-border move doesn't stall at the closing table.

"And we can really help and add value to Americans or past Canadians that are moving back to Toronto," Donaldson said. "We can use their US income and we can do various different things to help with their mortgage."

CMP

We hope you are finding our Blog informative and enjoyable to read while keeping you up to date with the ever changing real estate market. 

Please feel free to contact me via Direct/Text or e-mail at any time and my team will be pleased to assist you, family members and friends with all your real estate needs. Referrals are always welcome and rewarded!

‘Its own little beast': why Toronto's condo market is still struggling

On the face of it, a big year-over-year jump in sales activity in Toronto’s condo market last month might suggest reason for optimism in the sector. But condo prices are continuing to plummet across the city – and that trend could still have some way to run.

In the city centre, average condo prices slipped by 9% while they dropped by 10.6% across the wider 905 region in June, moving the overall Greater Toronto Area (GTA) average to $630,688 – a precipitous slide from their pandemic-era highs.

Toronto-area broker Micky Khaneka (pictured top) of MKG Mortgages said while he’s confident homebuying appetite will continue to improve in Toronto during the final six months of 2026, he’s not so sure about an uptick in condo purchase activity.

That’s because the familiar challenges facing the sector – excessive supply, appraisal problems and lack of demand – are still a big factor weighing against the market’s performance, even years after those hurdles first emerged.

“The condo market is its own little beast,” Khaneka told Canadian Mortgage Professional. “The number of units still available on the market is so [high]. I think it might be a little bit longer before that starts to be absorbed with the amount of interest we have in that sector.”

Perhaps the biggest conundrum facing the condo market is the glut of so-called “dog crate” units across the city. Those properties, built specifically to be rented out, are often sub-500-square-foot apartments whose popularity soared over the past two decades before plunging in recent years as rental demand nosedived, interest rates climbed, and immigration levels dropped.

But Khaneka highlighted a rare silver lining in the current market: the fact that young professionals whose chances of buying a condo disappeared amid rampant price appreciation are suddenly facing a much-improved environment.

A window for first-time buyers

A new Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) report highlighted that affordability in the sector has improved sharply over the past two years, with the banking giant’s affordability index for condos now just slightly higher than its pre-pandemic level.

“The price correction, alongside steadily rising incomes, has helped roll back the pandemic-era affordability deterioration entirely,” the RBC Economics analysis said. 

That’s a positive development for first-time buyers, Khaneka said, even if plenty of potential buyers are also holding out and waiting for prices to fall further. “I’m hopeful to see that prices coming down is creating opportunities,” he said.

“Are these first-time homebuyers and young professionals going to capitalize at this ideal entry point? I do see them doing so. I just don’t know how close we are to it or how long it might still take, given there are a lot of units out there.”

For renters hoping to buy a condo, the current market might offer their best chance in years. “It’s a perfect opportunity for people to get their foot in the market, build some equity, and then as they go into the next phase of life… they can always add on to that equity and ultimately use it as a stepping stone for the next purchase,” he said.

“Prices are back to pre-pandemic levels, and there are a lot of units still left, which puts the ball right back in the buyer’s court.”

Appraisal risks linger amid thin equity

But the falling values are also continuing to pose appraisal challenges, for homeowners looking to refinance or consolidate debt as well as for hopeful buyers.

That “ongoing issue” is still going strong – and many buyers who purchased between 2020 and now put down less than 20%, leaving thin equity cushions even as debt loads climb.

While the condo market’s well-documented struggles might be set to continue, Khaneka stressed that the overall picture for the Toronto market is more positive, and that the condo sector could remain an outlier as other segments improve.

“I’m more positive for the remainder of the year than the last six months,” he said. “I’m hoping not to be wrong, and this is just the start of something special.”

CMP

We hope you are finding our Blog informative and enjoyable to read while keeping you up to date with the ever changing real estate market. 

Please feel free to contact me via Direct/Text or e-mail at any time and my team will be pleased to assist you, family members and friends with all your real estate needs. Referrals are always welcome and rewarded!

Canada's housing recovery hits a bumpy patch in June

Canada's housing recovery took an uneven turn in June, with home resales sliding across five major markets even as Toronto posted its first sign of price stabilization in more than a year.

In a July 6 report, Robert Hogue, assistant chief economist at RBC Economics, said resales slipped in Fraser Valley, Calgary, Edmonton, Hamilton and Montreal last month, while Vancouver and Toronto extended gains that followed a disappointing winter.

Toronto shows signs of stabilizing, but condos lag behind

Toronto's benchmark home price held flat on a seasonally adjusted basis between May and June, its first monthly increase since January 2025, even though the index remained 5.4% below year-ago levels, Hogue reported.

Resales rose 1.4% from May but stayed 34% under pre-pandemic levels, underscoring how early the turnaround remains.

The recovery has not reached every corner of the market. As Canadian Mortgage Professional reported in a recent look at Toronto's stalled condo segment, condo prices in the city core and surrounding 905 region were still falling by a combined 6.4% as of May.

Toronto mortgage agent Taz Zaide of 6ix Mortgage Group previously told CMP that many buyers are waiting for further price cuts before committing.

"I don't see anybody trying to rush into it," Zaide said. "Lots of people want to sell, but people don't want to buy."

Meanwhile, GTA Realtors reported 1,714 condo apartment sales throughToronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB)'s MLS System in June. That's a 14.3% increase compared with June 2025, the strongest year-over-year gain among the four housing categories TRREB tracks.

Vancouver and Calgary chart different paths to recovery

Vancouver's home resales rose more than 3% month over month in June, RBC estimated, building on a 6.6% May advance. However, the benchmark price still fell 6% year over year, with detached homes and condos both down more than 7%.

That softness echoes CMP's coverage of Metro Vancouver's cooling condo market in May, where Greater Vancouver Realtors economist Andrew Lis described a market tracking closely to forecast, with "no obvious near-term catalysts" to shift conditions in either direction.

Calgary told a steadier story. New listings there fell 8% from May, tightening the market and helping slow price declines to 2.1% year over year, down from 3.2% in January, according to RBC.

Condos remained the weak spot, with transactions and benchmark prices down 20% and 9%, respectively, over the past year.

Montreal, meanwhile, saw resales ease nearly 4% from May as ownership costs tested affordability, though single-family prices still climbed 3.5% annually.

Hogue attributed the broader hesitancy to Canada's shrinking population, interest rates no longer falling, and lingering economic uncertainty, themes brokers have flagged in CMP's analysis of the country's weakening mortgage origination pace.

Whether Ontario and British Columbia's easing inventory translates into firmer prices, he said, will depend on how quickly demand and new sellers return to balance.

CMP

We hope you are finding our Blog informative and enjoyable to read while keeping you up to date with the ever changing real estate market. 

Please feel free to contact me via Direct/Text or e-mail at any time and my team will be pleased to assist you, family members and friends with all your real estate needs. Referrals are always welcome and rewarded!