Mortgage rates have dropped nearly 1.5 points in a year. But not everyone got the same deal.

When the Bank of Canada started cutting rates in June 2024, the general assumption was that relief would flow through the mortgage market fairly broadly. Rates would fall, affordability would improve, and the renewal wave would hurt less than people feared. That story is largely true. But Statistics Canada's April 2026 lending data tells a more specific version of it — and the specifics matter a lot for how brokers talk to clients today. 

The headline figure looks good: the volume-weighted average rate on total insured residential mortgages was 4.16 per cent in April 2026, down from 4.51 per cent a year earlier and 5.63 per cent two years ago. A 147-basis-point drop over two years is meaningful. But that's an average. Once you break it down by product type, a very different picture emerges. 

Where the cuts actually went 

Variable-rate borrowers got the most. The insured variable rate dropped from 6.97 per cent in April 2024 all the way to 3.79 per cent today — a 318-basis-point decline over two years, slightly more than the policy rate move itself. Uninsured variable borrowers saw something similar: 6.84 per cent to 3.88 per cent, down 296 basis points. 

Shorter-term fixed rates did well too. The insured one-to-three-year fixed fell 156 basis points over two years, from 6.19 per cent to 4.63 per cent. The insured three-to-five-year fixed — now the market's most popular term — dropped from 5.10 per cent to 3.87 per cent, down 123 basis points. 

The long end tells a completely different story. The insured five-year-and-over fixed rate went from 4.92 per cent in April 2024 to 3.98 per cent in April 2025. In April 2026, it's sitting at 3.97 per cent — a single basis point lower than a year ago. Essentially all of the two-year improvement happened in the first year. The past twelve months produced nothing. 

The uninsured five-year-and-over has moved from 5.30 per cent two years ago to 4.18 per cent today — down 112 basis points — but 100 of those came in the first year. The last twelve months: 12 basis points. 

Why the long end stopped moving 

This comes down to how fixed rates are actually priced. Five-year fixed mortgages don't track the Bank of Canada's overnight rate — they track the Government of Canada five-year bond yield. Bond yields reflect where markets think inflation and interest rates are heading over the long run, and those expectations have been pushed around by things that have nothing to do with Tiff Macklem. 

The Middle East conflict pushed oil prices higher and stoked inflation worries. Five-year GoC bond yields, as tracked by Canadian Mortgage Professional, rose roughly 69 basis points after the conflict escalated in late February. That rise only partially unwound by April. The result is that borrowers choosing a five-year fixed right now are paying a geopolitical risk premium embedded in the bond market — whether they know it or not. 

Sal Guatieri at BMO Capital Markets described the macro picture in January: "with rates now at the low end of neutral and inflation still moderately above target, the easing cycle is probably over." The Bank of Canada held again in June — fifth time running. RBC Economics isn't expecting hikes before 2027, but the bond market path — and with it, five-year fixed pricing — stays highly sensitive to what happens next in the Middle East and with inflation. 

A client exercise worth doing 

The Statistics Canada data makes a specific exercise possible that brokers can actually use. Take a client's current rate — based on when they originated and what term they chose — and map it against where the market sits now. 

A client who took an uninsured five-year fixed in April 2024 locked in at around 5.30 per cent. If they're renewing today, or approaching maturity, the best available uninsured three-to-five-year fix is 3.89 per cent. That's 141 basis points. On a $500,000 mortgage, that's about $400 less per month. 

A client who went insured variable in April 2024 at 6.97 per cent and held it through the cutting cycle is now at 3.79 per cent. Their payments have already fallen by over $1,000 per month on a comparable balance. They might be wondering whether to lock in now. The data suggests the floor on variable is close, and the five-year fixed has barely moved in a year. Whether to lock in — and at which term — isn't a question the data answers. But it's the question the data makes urgent. 

The odd thing happening at the short end 

There's one more wrinkle worth flagging. The insured one-to-three-year fixed currently sits at 4.63 per cent. The insured five-year-and-over fixed is at 3.97 per cent. That means the shorter term is actually more expensive than the longer one — the opposite of the normal relationship. 

This inverted pricing reflects a yield curve that sees modest rate increases down the road, combined with heavy lender competition at the five-year point that's compressed pricing there. For clients who just want the lowest rate available — first-time buyers, clients renewing with limited equity — the three-to-five-year fixed at 3.87 per cent (insured) or 3.89 per cent (uninsured) is cheaper than most big bank five-year fixes and cheaper than variable was as recently as last October. That's a useful fact to have going into a rate conversation. 

As the CMP Top 75 Brokers report noted, what separates the best brokers right now is treating renewal as an advisory conversation, not just an admin task. The Statistics Canada rate data gives you the raw material for that conversation — where rates have been, where they are, and why the next year probably won't look as good for long-term fixed borrowers as the last two did. 

CMP

We hope you are finding our Blog informative and enjoyable to read while keeping you up to date with the ever changing real estate market. 

Please feel free to contact me via Direct/Text or e-mail at any time and my team will be pleased to assist you, family members and friends with all your real estate needs. Referrals are always welcome and rewarded!

The uninsured mortgage boom

For years, the defining story of Canadian mortgage lending was the insured borrower: the first-time buyer scraping together a five % down payment, navigating mortgage default insurance, and entering homeownership at the market's most accessible threshold. That story has not ended. But new data from Statistics Canada suggests it is no longer the dominant one.

Uninsured residential mortgage funds advanced by chartered banks reached $54.4 billion in April 2026 - a 40.9% increase from $38.6 billion in April 2025, according to Statistics Canada's Table 10-10-0006-01, released this week.

Insured mortgage lending, meanwhile, grew 26.6% to $10.8 billion over the same period. Both numbers represent strong market activity. But the gap between them is the story. Uninsured mortgages now account for 83.5% of all new residential mortgage funds advanced - up from 81.9% a year ago, and the highest share in the dataset's history.

The picture this paints of Canada's spring 2026 market is one in which higher-equity, conventional borrowers - those with down payments of 20% or more, purchasing homes above $1 million, or refinancing outside the insured framework - are driving activity at a pace that far outstrips what is happening in the entry-level market. For mortgage brokers whose client books have historically skewed toward insured borrowers, the data is a prompt to ask whether they are positioned where the volume is going.

Why the shift is happening

The growth in uninsured lending is not a single-cause story. At least three structural forces are pushing in the same direction simultaneously.

The first is the rise in home prices in major urban centres over the past decade. In Toronto and Vancouver, where average prices have long exceeded the $1-million threshold above which CMHC insurance is unavailable, a growing share of buyers simply cannot access the insured market regardless of their down payment preferences. As Canadian Mortgage Professional has reported, price dynamics remain sharply divergent across the country in 2026 - with condo softness concentrated in Toronto and Vancouver while Quebec City, Montreal and Prairie markets see above-average growth - but the long-run effect of urban price appreciation has been to push a growing proportion of transactions into the uninsured tier.

The second is the federal government's decision in late 2024 to raise the maximum home price eligible for mortgage insurance from $1 million to $1.5 million. That change, which came into force in December 2024, should theoretically have pulled some transactions back into the insured market - and the Statistics Canada data shows insured lending growing strongly year-over-year. But the uninsured market has grown faster still, suggesting that the structural shift toward higher-equity borrowers is larger than any one policy measure.

The third is the renewal wave. As Canadian Mortgage Professional has documented extensively, residential mortgage debt crossed $2.4 trillion in December 2025, up 4.8% year-over-year, with a large cohort of fixed-rate borrowers coming to renewal.

Many of those borrowers took out mortgages in 2021 at historically low rates on properties that have since appreciated substantially. They are returning to the market as uninsured refinancers, with equity positions that put them well outside the insured framework - and with every incentive to shop.

Uninsured mortgage switches increased 34% between the second half of 2024 and the second half of 2025, according to data reported by Canadian Mortgage Professional, suggesting these borrowers are actively comparing offers rather than accepting the first renewal letter that arrives.

What the outstanding balance data reveals

If the funds advanced figures describe the flow of new lending, the outstanding balance data describes the stock - and it tells a complementary story. Insured outstanding balances fell 1.3% year-over-year to $375 billion in April 2026, while uninsured outstanding balances grew 2.9% to $1.25 trillion.

The decline in insured outstanding balances is notable. It reflects not just a shift in new lending activity but the ongoing repayment and maturation of the insured mortgage stock built up through the pandemic era. CMHC noted in its spring 2026 Mortgage Industry Report that 75% of outstanding mortgages across the country were uninsured last year, as reported by Canadian Mortgage Professional - a figure that, viewed alongside this month's Statistics Canada data, suggests that proportion is continuing to rise.

For lenders, CMHC flagged that growing uninsured concentration "puts lenders at greater risk of financial losses if mortgage delinquencies increase." For brokers, the practical implication is different: the uninsured borrower - higher equity, stronger income profile, more likely to be a repeat purchaser or refinancer - is not only the dominant client type in the current market but likely to remain so as property values in major centres continue to outpace the insured price thresholds.

The broker opportunity - and the warning

The dominance of uninsured lending creates a specific competitive dynamic for brokers. Uninsured borrowers who are renewing - particularly those who originally purchased at pandemic-era prices and are now sitting on substantial equity - are, in many cases, the most valuable clients in the market: high-balance mortgages, strong credit profiles, the ability to qualify under standard stress-test parameters, and, crucially, the motivation to seek competitive offers. Canadian Mortgage Professional has reported that the elimination of the stress test for uninsured borrowers switching lenders at renewal has meaningfully lowered the barrier to moving, increasing broker leverage in the renewal conversation.

The warning is embedded in the same data. The share of new uninsured mortgages with a total debt service ratio above 45% dropped to 31.3% in Q2 2025, down from 33.8% two years prior, according to Canadian Mortgage Professional's coverage of CIBC Capital Markets research.

That suggests lenders are underwriting more conservatively, and that some borrowers who might previously have qualified for large uninsured mortgages are not doing so now. The household debt-to-disposable-income ratio remains stubbornly high at 181.8%. Brokers who present their clients as straightforward uninsured approvals without running the full debt-service analysis are making an assumption the data does not support.

What brokers should be doing with this data

The Statistics Canada release is more than a market update. It is a directional signal that should prompt a specific response from mortgage professionals.

The client base that is driving growth right now is the higher-equity, conventional borrower - the refinancer coming off a low-rate pandemic mortgage, the move-up buyer trading one property for another with accumulated equity, the investor holding property worth more than $1 million. If your prospecting and referral network is concentrated in the first-time buyer segment, this data should prompt a question about whether that balance is right for the market as it is now, rather than the market as it was five years ago.

The uninsured renewal conversation, in particular, is one that rewards preparation. Knowing which clients have mortgages maturing in the next six months, modelling the difference between the bank's retention offer and the best whole-of-market rate, and making contact before the renewal letter arrives: those are the interventions that translate a broad market trend into a specific client outcome.

The numbers are large, the growth is accelerating, and the client base is changing. Brokers who have updated their positioning accordingly will find this moment more rewarding than those who have not.

CMP

We hope you are finding our Blog informative and enjoyable to read while keeping you up to date with the ever changing real estate market. 

Please feel free to contact me via Direct/Text or e-mail at any time and my team will be pleased to assist you, family members and friends with all your real estate needs. Referrals are always welcome and rewarded!

Affordability worsens in all 13 major Canadian housing markets in May

Prospective home buyers across Canada saw their purchasing power erode in May 2026, as mortgage affordability slid in every one of the 13 major cities tracked by Ratehub.ca.

The monthly study, which measures the annual income a borrower needs to qualify for a mortgage on an average-priced home, found that modestly higher fixed rates and rising home prices combined to push qualifying thresholds higher from coast to coast.

"Our latest home affordability analysis found that home affordability worsened in all of the cities we studied," said Penelope Graham, mortgage expert at Ratehub.ca in Toronto.

Rates and prices tighten in tandem

Two forces converged against buyers last month. The average five-year fixed rate across Canada's big five banks edged up to 4.49% in May, from 4.47% in April, a modest move, but enough to lift the mortgage stress test rate to 6.49%.

Demand was also firming up. According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales rose 5.5% month-over-month in May 2026, and the national average home price climbed to $702,079, its highest level in two years and the first time it has crossed the $700,000 mark in 23 months.

"Both mortgage rate and home price changes impacted home affordability this month," Graham said.

"Home prices were up in the majority of the cities and the average of the Big Five Banks' five-year fixed rates increased slightly, but enough to have an impact on the income required to buy a home."

Canada's already-strained affordability picture has proved difficult to improve, with structural gaps in supply compounding the challenge. The deeper forces driving Canada's persistent housing unaffordability crisis, including the cost-of-delivery pressures flagged by economists, suggest rate changes alone are unlikely to provide lasting relief.

A market of uneven pressures

The impact was not uniform. St. John's, Newfoundland saw the steepest deterioration: buyers there now need $2,800 more in annual income to qualify for the average home. That translates to $75 more per month, or $900 more per year, compared with April. 

Hamilton, Ontario followed, requiring $1,480 more in annual income as the average home price rose to $744,000.

Ottawa buyers need $1,260 more, with average prices reaching $635,300.

In Canada's two most expensive markets, the qualifying bar also moved higher. Vancouver buyers need an annual income of $225,200, up $900 from April, to afford an average home now priced at $1,100,700.

Toronto borrowers face a required income of $195,720, up $780, on an average price of $946,500.

Calgary and Halifax saw more modest increases of $660 and $540 respectively, while Prairie markets Edmonton and Winnipeg registered the smallest gains outside Québec, at $240 and $170.

Montréal, notably, was the only city where average home prices actually declined month-over-month, dropping $1,000 to $593,400, yet qualifying income still crept up by $10 due to the rate change, adding just $1 to the monthly payment.

For brokers working in Ontario and British Columbia, the national figure can obscure very different local conditions. In a recent interview with Canadian Mortgage Professional, Sal Guatieri, senior economist and director at Bank of Montreal (BMO) Capital Markets, said Ontario had not yet turned a corner.

"We're getting closer to more reasonable affordability in the Ontario housing market," Guatieri said. "We're not quite there yet."

For buyers who have been waiting, the data points to a narrowing window. Graham's advice is direct: "As conditions are anticipated to pick up in markets across Canada, it's important to have an idea of how differing price points and borrowing costs may impact your buying budget."

CMP

We hope you are finding our Blog informative and enjoyable to read while keeping you up to date with the ever changing real estate market. 

Please feel free to contact me via Direct/Text or e-mail at any time and my team will be pleased to assist you, family members and friends with all your real estate needs. Referrals are always welcome and rewarded!

Are young Torontonians abandoning the dream of homeownership?

Prices may be on the wane in Toronto’s condo market, but affordability challenges in the sector mean a property purchase is still out of reach for many renters in the city – and that’s leading some to re-evaluate their immediate housing priorities.

Even with average values having declined over the past couple of years amid a deep freeze in the Toronto condo market, added fees and the hefty monthly cost of owning a condo are leading some renters to question whether they even want to buy a small apartment imminently, according to Toronto-based Rates.ca mortgage and housing expert Victor Tran (pictured top).

“I think a lot of people are just looking for financial freedom and flexibility generally, and they’re OK to rent,” he told Canadian Mortgage Professional. “It’s not the end of the world.”

For the first time in at least 30 years, no new projects launched during the first quarter of 2026, according to Urbanation, with a record-high 4,295 new condos completed and unsold by the end of Q1.

That was more than double the level from a year ago and nearly five times higher than in the same period in 2024. Average condo prices, meanwhile, have continued to slide even with activity in the sector picking back up slightly in recent months.

And Tran said there’s no sign yet that many potential first-time homebuyers are ready to take the plunge into the market. “There was definitely an increase in sales. Inventory is piling up a little bit, but it’s more or less the same as what happened in the last spring market,” he said. “But I’m not optimistic that things will improve.”

‘Not much interest’ in condos among younger cohort

Younger demographics have historically been the main audience for entry-level condos, with that cohort once viewing condo ownership as a first step on the property ladder before gravitating into a larger, detached or semi-detached home.

Tran said many are now concluding that renting and investing elsewhere makes more financial sense, especially with no guarantee that buying a Toronto condo – once a lucrative short-term investment – will ultimately prove financially beneficial.

“The demographic that are looking at condos is usually younger and there’s not much interest there at the moment,” he said. “I feel like there’s been a shift in values, and not as much value put into homeownership.”

The pattern Tran described might feel like a familiar one to many younger Canadians: crunching the numbers, factoring in maintenance fees, property taxes, utilities, and mortgage payments, and finally deciding that the math doesn’t work.

What’s more, rents have declined in recent months, meaning many renters are feeling their pressure to buy easing and instead redirecting the funds for a potential downpayment into the stock market or other investments.

“If they invest their downpayment into the market instead, their rate of return is still decent, and it’s more liquid,” Tran said. “If you need the money, you can just sell your ETFs or mutual funds or whatever it is and get the money within 24 hours, as opposed to housing – it’s all locked in. It’s very expensive to transact in real estate.”

The trend of younger Canadians turning their back on homeownership has also gathered pace because of the eyewatering runup in national home prices over the past decade.

In 2023 – shortly after the COVID-19 pandemic spurred a big spike in average prices – an Ipsos/Global News poll showed 63% of Canadians who don’t own a home say they have given up on ever owning one, with 69% of Canadians agreeing that homeownership is now only for the rich.

Supply pipeline adding to pressure

New construction may have completely dried up in the condo sector, but there’s still a glut of unfinished units scheduled to come onstream – a trend Tran described as “a bit alarming.”

And with buyer negotiating power also remaining substantial across the condo segment thanks to high standing inventory suppressing prices, Tran doesn’t see the conditions for a pickup in market activity anytime soon.

“There’s really no positive signs that we’re getting close to a recovery in terms of pricing,” he said.

CMP

We hope you are finding our Blog informative and enjoyable to read while keeping you up to date with the ever changing real estate market. 

Please feel free to contact me via Direct/Text or e-mail at any time and my team will be pleased to assist you, family members and friends with all your real estate needs. Referrals are always welcome and rewarded!

Canadian home sales jump in May, ending sluggish spring start

Canadian home sales climbed 5.5% on a month-over-month basis in May 2026, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reported Tuesday. That's the first month this year to deliver meaningful upward momentum in national demand.

The gain lifted the national average sale price to $702,079, up 1.5% from May 2025 and the highest monthly reading in two years. It was also the first time the measure crossed the $700,000 mark in 23 months, according to CREA's May 2026 housing market report.

Garry Bhaura, CREA chair, said the figures were the clearest signal yet for Canadians still sitting on the sidelines. "Like the weather in many parts of Canada this year, the spring market appears to have been delayed by a month or so, but the May numbers left little doubt that activity is now picking up," Bhaura said.

"If you have been on the fence this year as either a buyer or as a seller waiting for a sign, this could be it."

Ontario drives the national gain

Shaun Cathcart, senior economist with the Canadian Real Estate Association in Ottawa, said Ontario's disproportionate contribution to May's jump raised a specific question about buyer motivation.

"The national sales increase from April to May was broad-based but driven disproportionately by Ontario, suggesting the HST rebate on new builds may have only briefly drawn the attention of buyers away from the existing home market," Cathcart said.

Actual sales, not seasonally adjusted, remained 5.1% below May 2025. New listings edged down 1% month-over-month, tightening the national sales-to-new-listings ratio to 49.2% from 46.2% in April.

CREA's long-term average for that measure sits at 54.8%, with readings between 45% and 65% generally consistent with balanced market conditions.

Even with May's uptick, mortgage brokers tracking market conditions heading into mid-2026 have largely tempered their expectations for the months ahead.

What does May's rebound mean for mortgage brokers?

The National Composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) — which tracks price changes for comparable properties to strip out shifts in the composition of what is selling — edged down 0.1% month-over-month in May, the smallest decline since January 2025 aside from April.

On an annual basis, the HPI fell 4.1%, though that marked the narrowest year-over-year drop recorded in 2026 so far. Prices remained negative year-over-year in British Columbia, Alberta, and Ontario, while other provinces continued to post gains.

National inventory fell to 4.8 months, down from 5.1 months in each of February, March, and April, a tighter picture than the conditions that led CREA to downgrade its 2026 sales and price forecasts in April amid rising bond yields and higher fixed mortgage rates.

Cathcart said the alignment of buyer and seller expectations is the key development to watch. 

"Sellers' and buyers' expectations are increasingly aligned, as evidenced by tightening sale-to-list price ratios and shorter periods between listing and sale dates. As a result, prices have largely stabilized following some softness earlier in the year," he said.

For buyers who are still hesitating, the more pressing question may not be about prices at all. Kevin Fettig, president of Mississauga-based private mortgage lender CMI Financial Group, said the May data is encouraging on paper, but buyers risk fixating on the wrong variable.

"Stop watching whether home prices are down and start watching where the interest rates are heading, because the bigger risk this season isn't mistiming the market, it's mistiming the financing," Fettig said.

"If the rate environment shifts while you're mid-decision, it could cost you your purchasing window."

CMP

We hope you are finding our Blog informative and enjoyable to read while keeping you up to date with the ever changing real estate market. 

Please feel free to contact me via Direct/Text or e-mail at any time and my team will be pleased to assist you, family members and friends with all your real estate needs. Referrals are always welcome and rewarded!