Canada's housing recovery hits a bumpy patch in June

Canada's housing recovery took an uneven turn in June, with home resales sliding across five major markets even as Toronto posted its first sign of price stabilization in more than a year.

In a July 6 report, Robert Hogue, assistant chief economist at RBC Economics, said resales slipped in Fraser Valley, Calgary, Edmonton, Hamilton and Montreal last month, while Vancouver and Toronto extended gains that followed a disappointing winter.

Toronto shows signs of stabilizing, but condos lag behind

Toronto's benchmark home price held flat on a seasonally adjusted basis between May and June, its first monthly increase since January 2025, even though the index remained 5.4% below year-ago levels, Hogue reported.

Resales rose 1.4% from May but stayed 34% under pre-pandemic levels, underscoring how early the turnaround remains.

The recovery has not reached every corner of the market. As Canadian Mortgage Professional reported in a recent look at Toronto's stalled condo segment, condo prices in the city core and surrounding 905 region were still falling by a combined 6.4% as of May.

Toronto mortgage agent Taz Zaide of 6ix Mortgage Group previously told CMP that many buyers are waiting for further price cuts before committing.

"I don't see anybody trying to rush into it," Zaide said. "Lots of people want to sell, but people don't want to buy."

Meanwhile, GTA Realtors reported 1,714 condo apartment sales throughToronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB)'s MLS System in June. That's a 14.3% increase compared with June 2025, the strongest year-over-year gain among the four housing categories TRREB tracks.

Vancouver and Calgary chart different paths to recovery

Vancouver's home resales rose more than 3% month over month in June, RBC estimated, building on a 6.6% May advance. However, the benchmark price still fell 6% year over year, with detached homes and condos both down more than 7%.

That softness echoes CMP's coverage of Metro Vancouver's cooling condo market in May, where Greater Vancouver Realtors economist Andrew Lis described a market tracking closely to forecast, with "no obvious near-term catalysts" to shift conditions in either direction.

Calgary told a steadier story. New listings there fell 8% from May, tightening the market and helping slow price declines to 2.1% year over year, down from 3.2% in January, according to RBC.

Condos remained the weak spot, with transactions and benchmark prices down 20% and 9%, respectively, over the past year.

Montreal, meanwhile, saw resales ease nearly 4% from May as ownership costs tested affordability, though single-family prices still climbed 3.5% annually.

Hogue attributed the broader hesitancy to Canada's shrinking population, interest rates no longer falling, and lingering economic uncertainty, themes brokers have flagged in CMP's analysis of the country's weakening mortgage origination pace.

Whether Ontario and British Columbia's easing inventory translates into firmer prices, he said, will depend on how quickly demand and new sellers return to balance.

CMP

We hope you are finding our Blog informative and enjoyable to read while keeping you up to date with the ever changing real estate market. 

Please feel free to contact me via Direct/Text or e-mail at any time and my team will be pleased to assist you, family members and friends with all your real estate needs. Referrals are always welcome and rewarded!

Mom and Dad say the early '80s were harder for homebuyers. They're not completely right.

When I read new analysis from KPMG in Australia this week, it confirmed what many Canadian mortgage brokers have suspected for years: when you measure total interest payments as a share of household income, today's borrowers are carrying more than the generation that faced double-digit rates. Yes, the headline rate was higher then. But the house was cheaper. The debt was smaller. 

The Bank of Canada prime rate peaked in 1981, at around 22%. By 1989 it had already fallen to 13-14% and was declining. So when a Canadian client's parent says "we survived 20% rates," they are probably right. The monthly pain was real. But the house they bought in 1981 cost roughly three to four times their household income. The mortgage on that house, even at 20%, was smaller in absolute terms than the mortgage a first home buyer in Toronto or Vancouver takes on today. 

As Mortgage Introducer reported this week, the same structural argument holds across markets where prices have outrun incomes for three decades. In Canada, it holds with particular force. 

The numbers 

The national average sale price was $673,335 in December 2025, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association - roughly unchanged from December 2024 but up around 57% from the national average of approximately $430,000 in 2015. The National Bank of Canada Housing Affordability Monitor puts the national mortgage payment as a percentage of household income at 52.3% in Q1 2026 - still well above its long-term average of 40.6% since 2000, even after nine consecutive quarters of improvement. 

The national figure conceals the extremes. In Toronto, buying the average home ($941,800) requires a household income of roughly $207,000 to qualify at current rates, according to Ratehub's March 2026 Affordability Report. The National Bank Monitor puts the Greater Toronto Area mortgage payment to income ratio at 70.9% in Q1 2026 - above its long-term average of 54.4%. In Vancouver, the ratio of house prices to median income is among the highest of any city in the developed world. The median first-time buyer age in Vancouver is now 46, and in Toronto it is 40, according to a November 2025 global analysis by Bloom Holding. 

Read that again. The median person buying their first home in Vancouver is 46 years old. 

In the early 1980s, the generation now citing their high rates got on the ladder in their mid to late twenties at three to four times their income. The rate was brutal and temporary. The debt was smaller and manageable. By the time rates fell - and they fell dramatically through the 1980s and 1990s - those buyers held an asset that had appreciated substantially and a mortgage that had become cheap to service. 

Three things the comparison omits 

Prices have left incomes behind. CREA data shows the national average home price rose from approximately $430,000 in 2015 to $673,335 in December 2025 - a rise of around 57%. Statistics Canada's Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours shows median wage growth of roughly 15-18% over the same period. CMHC's 2026 Housing Market Outlook calculates that Canada needs to build between 430,000 and 480,000 homes per year through 2035 just to restore 2019 affordability levels - itself an acknowledgment that prices have moved structurally beyond income growth. 

The deposit timeline has extended, not shortened. CMHC's 2025 Mortgage Consumer Survey found the average time to save a down payment was 3.4 years nationally. That sounds manageable until you look at the cities. Vancouver's median first-time buyer age of 46 reflects a saving period that, for most buyers, extends well over a decade. The 1981 generation did not face a decade of saving before they could start paying those high rates. 

The new 30-year amortization is a symptom, not a solution. Canada extended insured mortgage amortization to 30 years for first-time buyers in December 2024. The intention was to reduce monthly payments and improve access. The structural effect is to spread a much larger debt across a longer period - reducing the monthly number while increasing total interest paid over the life of the loan. A 25-year mortgage at 20% on a $150,000 house costs less in total interest than a 30-year mortgage at 5% on a $700,000 house. 

The rate was higher. But. 

The rate was higher, briefly, in 1981. The house was three to four times income. The deposit took three or four years to save. The mortgage was paid off in 25 years. Today's buyer in Toronto or Vancouver faces a house at twelve times income, a deposit that consumes a decade of saving, and an amortization period stretched to 30 years to make the monthly payment bearable - at a rate that, while lower in percentage terms, applies to a debt that is structurally much larger. 

The National Bank of Canada Housing Affordability Monitor's Q1 2026 report puts it plainly: even after the longest streak of consecutive affordability improvement ever recorded, the national mortgage payment as a share of income remains "well above its long-term average." CMHC's 2026 Housing Market Outlook describes the year ahead as likely to be "one of the weakest in recent decades" for housing demand, with prices showing only modest movement and supply still running well short of what is needed to restore affordability. 

That is the context in which your clients are making the biggest financial decision of their lives. This is why they need your help.

CMP

We hope you are finding our Blog informative and enjoyable to read while keeping you up to date with the ever changing real estate market. 

Please feel free to contact me via Direct/Text or e-mail at any time and my team will be pleased to assist you, family members and friends with all your real estate needs. Referrals are always welcome and rewarded!

Canadian homebuyers cite affordability, not uncertainty, as chief barrier

Most Canadians who do not own a home have no plans to buy one in the coming year, and a new survey identifies affordability — not fear of economic turmoil — as the dominant force keeping them out of the market.

The findings, published in June by NerdWallet Canada and conducted by Angus Reid, surveyed 1,501 adults between May 26 and 29, 2026. Among non-homeowners, 55% said they had no interest in buying a home in the next 12 months, and only 6% planned to purchase a first home over that period.

The survey pinned the reluctance on present-day costs rather than future risk. Nearly a quarter of respondents (23%) said living costs that were too high or unpredictable were preventing them from moving, followed by an inability to afford a down payment (18%). Other frequently cited obstacles included competing financial priorities (17%), waiting for prices to fall (16%) and mortgage rates being too high (15%). By contrast, unease over the US trade dispute (6%) and job-security worries (8%) ranked far lower.

That reading aligns with independent institutional data. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. projects the economy to grow just 0.7% in 2026, one of the weakest years in recent decades outside a recession. The agency attributes softening prices to a large resale inventory, persistent affordability challenges and weak sales, and warns that a mild recession cannot be ruled out if business investment falters.

Sentiment sours as prices stay elevated

Negative views of the market were widespread. Almost nine in 10 respondents (88%) agreed that homes in Canada are overpriced, and 69% said the market is unfair to first-time buyers. A further 68% said the market is too focused on housing as an investment. Just 14% said the market is functioning the way it should.

A generational split ran through the data. Among those aged 18 to 34, 63% agreed that homeownership feels out of reach, roughly double the 31% recorded among respondents 55 and older. Agreement that homes are overpriced was also higher among younger respondents, at 92%, compared with 82% of those 55 and older.

The affordability squeeze persists even as prices ease. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reported its benchmark price index fell 4.1% year-over-year in May 2026, yet the national average sale price still edged up 1.5% over the same period, leaving ownership beyond reach for many.

Buyers wait as spring market recovers

The survey found demand simmering rather than dead: 35% of non-homeowners said they wanted to buy but would likely keep renting (28%) or living with relatives (7%). Interest was lowest among non-owning women, 62% of whom reported no plans to buy, compared with 47% of non-owning men.

Recent market data suggests some of that demand is beginning to move. CREA reported that home sales rose 5.5% month-over-month in May 2026, and the national sales-to-new-listings ratio tightened to 49.2% from 46.2% in April. CREA chair Garry Bhaura tied the shift to seasonal timing.

"The spring market appears to have been delayed by a month or so," Bhaura said.

The report also gauged views on the industry's intermediaries. Fewer than one in five respondents (18%) said real estate agents provide a lot of value during the buying process, while 41% said they bring some value and only 6% said they provide none.

CMP

We hope you are finding our Blog informative and enjoyable to read while keeping you up to date with the ever changing real estate market. 

Please feel free to contact me via Direct/Text or e-mail at any time and my team will be pleased to assist you, family members and friends with all your real estate needs. Referrals are always welcome and rewarded!

Calgary home sales slip in June as migration pullback dampens demand

Calgary's resale housing market continued to cool in June, with the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) recording 2,197 transactions. That's down 3.8% from the same month last year and just below the long-term June average.

The citywide residential benchmark price fell 2.1% year-over-year to $572,500, as slowing population growth reshapes demand across nearly every property type.

"The easing of demand for resale homes does not come as a surprise given the recent decline in migration, which is impacting both rental and ownership demand for higher-density homes," said Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist at the Calgary Real Estate Board.

Government of Alberta data cited by Lurie shows a modest net provincial population increase of roughly 5,000 people between October and January, a marked deceleration from earlier boom-era growth, with international migration contracting.

Statistics Canada's Q4 2025 demographic estimates corroborate the trend, placing Alberta's net interprovincial gain at 3,684 people in that quarter, down from 4,993 a year earlier.

Brokers tracking signs of strain in Calgary's housing market say the data aligns with conditions they have been observing on the ground since late 2025.

Apartment sector bearing the heaviest load

The sharpest deterioration is concentrated in the apartment condominium segment. June benchmark prices for apartment-style units fell nearly 9% year-over-year to $299,000, with months of supply sitting at approximately five months and a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 45%, both firmly in buyer's market territory.

Year-to-date apartment sales are down 27%, compounding a 28% decline recorded between 2024 and 2025. Row-style properties have also struggled, with the benchmark price dropping 5.5% year-over-year to $424,100 and year-to-date sales off close to 16%.

Detached market holds firmer — but price remains decisive

Calgary's detached segment offered relative stability in June, with the benchmark price easing just 1.4% year-over-year to $750,500.

Roughly three months of supply kept conditions broadly balanced across the city, and Calgary's detached home sales showed signs of tightening earlier this year, a divergence from the broader market that has persisted into summer. Semi-detached benchmark prices edged 0.2% higher year-over-year to $694,600.

New listings fell 7.7% year-over-year to 3,899 in June, while total inventory declined 2.1% to 6,799 units. The pullback in new supply pushed the sales-to-new-listings ratio to 56%, slowing the pace of inventory accumulation.

Regional markets reflect the same two-speed dynamic

Conditions in Calgary's surrounding communities broadly mirror the city's divergence by property type, with higher-density supply weighing more heavily on some centres than others.

In Airdrie, year-to-date sales are down 14% compared with 2025, and rising inventory pushed months of supply above four months in June.

The unadjusted benchmark price was $516,900 in June, up slightly from the previous month but nearly 4% below a year earlier, with larger declines recorded in higher-density property types.

CREB noted that increased competition from neighbouring new home markets has compounded resale pressure in the area.

Cochrane presented a more resilient picture. Year-to-date sales of 569 units were marginally ahead of last year's pace, and the sales-to-new-listings ratio remained above 60% in June.

Inventory eased slightly to 323 units, keeping months of supply just above three months. The benchmark price of $580,200 was less than 2% below year-earlier levels, with five consecutive months of monthly price gains reflecting the impact of comparatively tighter supply.

Okotoks showed the tightest conditions of the three satellite communities. With 89 new listings and 70 sales in June, the sales-to-new-listings ratio reached 79%, halting any further inventory accumulation.

Supply remains below long-term trends, particularly for detached homes, which has helped keep pricing stable despite broader softening across the region. The unadjusted benchmark of $618,600 was less than 2% below last June.

CMP

We hope you are finding our Blog informative and enjoyable to read while keeping you up to date with the ever changing real estate market. 

Please feel free to contact me via Direct/Text or e-mail at any time and my team will be pleased to assist you, family members and friends with all your real estate needs. Referrals are always welcome and rewarded!

The clients renewing in 2026 might actually be the lucky ones

For the past two years, the mortgage renewal conversation in Canada has been written almost entirely as a stress story. The Bank of Canada hiked aggressively through 2022 and 2023, a generation of borrowers locked in at historic lows, and their approaching renewal dates became a shorthand for household financial pain. The "mortgage cliff" entered the conversation and never quite left. 

That framing isn't wrong - for borrowers who took five-year fixed rates at pandemic lows of around 1.95 to 2.03 per cent, renewing today does mean a meaningful payment increase. 

But Statistics Canada's April 2026 data tells a more interesting story about another segment of the renewal cohort - one that often gets missed because it doesn't fit the stress narrative. Borrowers who locked into three-to-five-year fixed rates in 2022, 2023 and 2024 aren't returning to a market that's more expensive than what they're leaving. They're returning to one that's cheaper. In some cases, meaningfully so. And the broker who understands which clients fall into this group, and reaches out with the right message, has a real opportunity. 

The rate history you need to know 

Statistics Canada tracks volume-weighted average rates on chartered bank lending, month by month, going back to 2013. The numbers for the relevant renewal cohorts are pretty clear. 

Borrowers who took an uninsured five-year-and-over fixed in April 2021 paid an average of 2.03 per cent. Those who locked in October 2021 paid 2.22 per cent. These clients are renewing in 2026 and 2027, and the market they're coming back to is at 4.18 per cent for the same product. That's a roughly 195-basis-point increase - around $450 more per month on a $400,000 outstanding balance. For these clients, the renewal stress story is accurate, and they need proactive advice. 

But look at what was happening at the shorter end during the peak rate period. In April 2023, the uninsured three-to-five-year fixed averaged 5.08 per cent. By October 2023, it hit 6.03 per cent - the highest in the dataset. In April 2024, it was 5.31 per cent. Borrowers who locked into those rates are now heading for renewal in 2026, 2027 and 2028 - and the rate waiting for them is 3.89 per cent. 

Depending on when they locked in, that's a decline of 119 to 214 basis points. On a $400,000 outstanding balance, the payment improvement runs from roughly $270 per month (for the April 2023 cohort) to around $500 per month (for those who locked in at the October 2023 peak). These aren't clients who need to be braced for bad news. They're clients heading for a genuine financial improvement - and they may not even know it yet. 

Two cohorts, two conversations 

The Statistics Canada data lets you map your client book fairly precisely by renewal situation. 

The payment-increase cohort is mostly borrowers who took five-year fixed rates between 2019 and early 2022, when rates ran from around 2.0 per cent to 3.3 per cent. Their renewals run from 2024 through 2027. For this group - the one CMP and the Top 75 Brokers report have covered extensively - the broker's job is rate shopping, term selection, and where needed, amortization restructuring to keep payments manageable. 

The payment-improvement cohort took shorter terms during the peak rate years - primarily one-to-three-year and three-to-five-year fixed between mid-2022 and mid-2024. Their renewals fall mostly between now and 2028. As CMP reported earlier this year, TD Economics specifically flagged this group: "borrowers who took out a fixed-rate mortgage with a term under five years around 2023 or 2024 are much less likely to see their mortgage payments shoot dramatically upwards." 

The Bank of Canada's own analysis, as documented by CMP, made the same point: borrowers renewing in 2026 face materially lower rate increases than those who renewed in 2024 or 2025, precisely because the 2026 cohort includes more people who locked in at peak-rate terms. 

Why the improvement cohort needs outreach too 

Here's the part that's easy to miss. Payment-increase clients feel the urgency - they know something uncomfortable is coming. Payment-improvement clients don't. Their rate is about to fall, their budget is improving, and their instinct is to just take whatever renewal offer their current lender sends. They're not stressed, so they don't call their broker. 

That passivity is exactly where the bank's retention team has its advantage. The bank sends a letter, the client signs it, and the broker never gets the call - because from the client's perspective, things are fine. 

But "fine" isn't the same as "best available." A client who locks in at their lender's renewal rate when the whole market is offering something cheaper has left real money on the table. The broker who reaches that client first - with a straightforward message that their rate is about to improve and they should make sure they capture all of that improvement, not just part of it - is offering something valuable. Sushanta Sen of MCAP said it well at the Canadian Mortgage Summit, as CMP reported: "I'm talking really early. Not 90 days - even sooner than that." 

The clients in your CRM who took fixed terms between mid-2022 and mid-2024 are the ones to look at. Flag the maturity dates. Get in touch six months out. The conversation practically writes itself. 

The next wave is already being written 

One more thing worth noting. The $24.5 billion in uninsured three-to-five-year fixed mortgages advanced in April 2026 alone will themselves come up for renewal between 2029 and 2031. Nobody knows what rates will look like then. But those clients are being originated right now - and the broker who closes those deals, stays in contact through the term, and shows up for the renewal conversation in 2029 is building something compounding. Shorter terms mean more frequent renewals, which means more frequent chances to demonstrate value. 

Niloo Fazeli of Neighbourhood Holdings put it neatly in a May 2026 interview with CMP: "Together, we shift the focus from reacting to a renewal deadline to planning for a successful transition." 

The data gives you the map. The cohort is identifiable. The rate improvement is calculable. The window is open. The only question is whether your client hears about it from you first - or from their bank. 

CMP

We hope you are finding our Blog informative and enjoyable to read while keeping you up to date with the ever changing real estate market. 

Please feel free to contact me via Direct/Text or e-mail at any time and my team will be pleased to assist you, family members and friends with all your real estate needs. Referrals are always welcome and rewarded!