Calgary home sales slip in June as migration pullback dampens demand

Calgary's resale housing market continued to cool in June, with the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) recording 2,197 transactions. That's down 3.8% from the same month last year and just below the long-term June average.

The citywide residential benchmark price fell 2.1% year-over-year to $572,500, as slowing population growth reshapes demand across nearly every property type.

"The easing of demand for resale homes does not come as a surprise given the recent decline in migration, which is impacting both rental and ownership demand for higher-density homes," said Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist at the Calgary Real Estate Board.

Government of Alberta data cited by Lurie shows a modest net provincial population increase of roughly 5,000 people between October and January, a marked deceleration from earlier boom-era growth, with international migration contracting.

Statistics Canada's Q4 2025 demographic estimates corroborate the trend, placing Alberta's net interprovincial gain at 3,684 people in that quarter, down from 4,993 a year earlier.

Brokers tracking signs of strain in Calgary's housing market say the data aligns with conditions they have been observing on the ground since late 2025.

Apartment sector bearing the heaviest load

The sharpest deterioration is concentrated in the apartment condominium segment. June benchmark prices for apartment-style units fell nearly 9% year-over-year to $299,000, with months of supply sitting at approximately five months and a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 45%, both firmly in buyer's market territory.

Year-to-date apartment sales are down 27%, compounding a 28% decline recorded between 2024 and 2025. Row-style properties have also struggled, with the benchmark price dropping 5.5% year-over-year to $424,100 and year-to-date sales off close to 16%.

Detached market holds firmer — but price remains decisive

Calgary's detached segment offered relative stability in June, with the benchmark price easing just 1.4% year-over-year to $750,500.

Roughly three months of supply kept conditions broadly balanced across the city, and Calgary's detached home sales showed signs of tightening earlier this year, a divergence from the broader market that has persisted into summer. Semi-detached benchmark prices edged 0.2% higher year-over-year to $694,600.

New listings fell 7.7% year-over-year to 3,899 in June, while total inventory declined 2.1% to 6,799 units. The pullback in new supply pushed the sales-to-new-listings ratio to 56%, slowing the pace of inventory accumulation.

Regional markets reflect the same two-speed dynamic

Conditions in Calgary's surrounding communities broadly mirror the city's divergence by property type, with higher-density supply weighing more heavily on some centres than others.

In Airdrie, year-to-date sales are down 14% compared with 2025, and rising inventory pushed months of supply above four months in June.

The unadjusted benchmark price was $516,900 in June, up slightly from the previous month but nearly 4% below a year earlier, with larger declines recorded in higher-density property types.

CREB noted that increased competition from neighbouring new home markets has compounded resale pressure in the area.

Cochrane presented a more resilient picture. Year-to-date sales of 569 units were marginally ahead of last year's pace, and the sales-to-new-listings ratio remained above 60% in June.

Inventory eased slightly to 323 units, keeping months of supply just above three months. The benchmark price of $580,200 was less than 2% below year-earlier levels, with five consecutive months of monthly price gains reflecting the impact of comparatively tighter supply.

Okotoks showed the tightest conditions of the three satellite communities. With 89 new listings and 70 sales in June, the sales-to-new-listings ratio reached 79%, halting any further inventory accumulation.

Supply remains below long-term trends, particularly for detached homes, which has helped keep pricing stable despite broader softening across the region. The unadjusted benchmark of $618,600 was less than 2% below last June.

CMP

We hope you are finding our Blog informative and enjoyable to read while keeping you up to date with the ever changing real estate market. 

Please feel free to contact me via Direct/Text or e-mail at any time and my team will be pleased to assist you, family members and friends with all your real estate needs. Referrals are always welcome and rewarded!

The clients renewing in 2026 might actually be the lucky ones

For the past two years, the mortgage renewal conversation in Canada has been written almost entirely as a stress story. The Bank of Canada hiked aggressively through 2022 and 2023, a generation of borrowers locked in at historic lows, and their approaching renewal dates became a shorthand for household financial pain. The "mortgage cliff" entered the conversation and never quite left. 

That framing isn't wrong - for borrowers who took five-year fixed rates at pandemic lows of around 1.95 to 2.03 per cent, renewing today does mean a meaningful payment increase. 

But Statistics Canada's April 2026 data tells a more interesting story about another segment of the renewal cohort - one that often gets missed because it doesn't fit the stress narrative. Borrowers who locked into three-to-five-year fixed rates in 2022, 2023 and 2024 aren't returning to a market that's more expensive than what they're leaving. They're returning to one that's cheaper. In some cases, meaningfully so. And the broker who understands which clients fall into this group, and reaches out with the right message, has a real opportunity. 

The rate history you need to know 

Statistics Canada tracks volume-weighted average rates on chartered bank lending, month by month, going back to 2013. The numbers for the relevant renewal cohorts are pretty clear. 

Borrowers who took an uninsured five-year-and-over fixed in April 2021 paid an average of 2.03 per cent. Those who locked in October 2021 paid 2.22 per cent. These clients are renewing in 2026 and 2027, and the market they're coming back to is at 4.18 per cent for the same product. That's a roughly 195-basis-point increase - around $450 more per month on a $400,000 outstanding balance. For these clients, the renewal stress story is accurate, and they need proactive advice. 

But look at what was happening at the shorter end during the peak rate period. In April 2023, the uninsured three-to-five-year fixed averaged 5.08 per cent. By October 2023, it hit 6.03 per cent - the highest in the dataset. In April 2024, it was 5.31 per cent. Borrowers who locked into those rates are now heading for renewal in 2026, 2027 and 2028 - and the rate waiting for them is 3.89 per cent. 

Depending on when they locked in, that's a decline of 119 to 214 basis points. On a $400,000 outstanding balance, the payment improvement runs from roughly $270 per month (for the April 2023 cohort) to around $500 per month (for those who locked in at the October 2023 peak). These aren't clients who need to be braced for bad news. They're clients heading for a genuine financial improvement - and they may not even know it yet. 

Two cohorts, two conversations 

The Statistics Canada data lets you map your client book fairly precisely by renewal situation. 

The payment-increase cohort is mostly borrowers who took five-year fixed rates between 2019 and early 2022, when rates ran from around 2.0 per cent to 3.3 per cent. Their renewals run from 2024 through 2027. For this group - the one CMP and the Top 75 Brokers report have covered extensively - the broker's job is rate shopping, term selection, and where needed, amortization restructuring to keep payments manageable. 

The payment-improvement cohort took shorter terms during the peak rate years - primarily one-to-three-year and three-to-five-year fixed between mid-2022 and mid-2024. Their renewals fall mostly between now and 2028. As CMP reported earlier this year, TD Economics specifically flagged this group: "borrowers who took out a fixed-rate mortgage with a term under five years around 2023 or 2024 are much less likely to see their mortgage payments shoot dramatically upwards." 

The Bank of Canada's own analysis, as documented by CMP, made the same point: borrowers renewing in 2026 face materially lower rate increases than those who renewed in 2024 or 2025, precisely because the 2026 cohort includes more people who locked in at peak-rate terms. 

Why the improvement cohort needs outreach too 

Here's the part that's easy to miss. Payment-increase clients feel the urgency - they know something uncomfortable is coming. Payment-improvement clients don't. Their rate is about to fall, their budget is improving, and their instinct is to just take whatever renewal offer their current lender sends. They're not stressed, so they don't call their broker. 

That passivity is exactly where the bank's retention team has its advantage. The bank sends a letter, the client signs it, and the broker never gets the call - because from the client's perspective, things are fine. 

But "fine" isn't the same as "best available." A client who locks in at their lender's renewal rate when the whole market is offering something cheaper has left real money on the table. The broker who reaches that client first - with a straightforward message that their rate is about to improve and they should make sure they capture all of that improvement, not just part of it - is offering something valuable. Sushanta Sen of MCAP said it well at the Canadian Mortgage Summit, as CMP reported: "I'm talking really early. Not 90 days - even sooner than that." 

The clients in your CRM who took fixed terms between mid-2022 and mid-2024 are the ones to look at. Flag the maturity dates. Get in touch six months out. The conversation practically writes itself. 

The next wave is already being written 

One more thing worth noting. The $24.5 billion in uninsured three-to-five-year fixed mortgages advanced in April 2026 alone will themselves come up for renewal between 2029 and 2031. Nobody knows what rates will look like then. But those clients are being originated right now - and the broker who closes those deals, stays in contact through the term, and shows up for the renewal conversation in 2029 is building something compounding. Shorter terms mean more frequent renewals, which means more frequent chances to demonstrate value. 

Niloo Fazeli of Neighbourhood Holdings put it neatly in a May 2026 interview with CMP: "Together, we shift the focus from reacting to a renewal deadline to planning for a successful transition." 

The data gives you the map. The cohort is identifiable. The rate improvement is calculable. The window is open. The only question is whether your client hears about it from you first - or from their bank. 

CMP

We hope you are finding our Blog informative and enjoyable to read while keeping you up to date with the ever changing real estate market. 

Please feel free to contact me via Direct/Text or e-mail at any time and my team will be pleased to assist you, family members and friends with all your real estate needs. Referrals are always welcome and rewarded!

Mortgage renewal wave hits hardest for newcomers, new buyers

Canada's approaching mortgage renewal wave is bearing down hardest on borrowers with the least room to absorb higher payments, particularly newcomers and recent first-time buyers, according to new consumer research from Mortgage Professionals Canada (MPC).

The report, Canadians' Mortgage and Homeownership Outlook, draws on an online survey of close to 2,000 Canadians conducted by Bond Brand Loyalty between Feb. 5 and 25.

One-third of mortgage holders expect to renew within the next 12 months. Among them, 67% are anxious about renewing at a higher interest rate. Across all mortgage holders, 6% are already struggling with payments while another 44% would face difficulty if payments rose by less than 15%.

"Renewal pressure is not just about interest rates. It is about how much room households have to absorb a higher payment," said Lauren van den Berg, president and chief executive officer of Mortgage Professionals Canada.

"This research shows many borrowers are approaching renewal with thin payment buffers, which makes early advice, careful planning and access to the right mortgage options more important than ever."

Newcomers and recent buyers carry the steepest burden

Among first-time buyers who purchased within the past five years, 66% are anxious about renewing at a higher rate and 37% regret the size of mortgage they took on.

For those new to Canada, the figures are more pronounced: 68% are anxious and 57% regret the scale of their obligations.

Payment vulnerability is highest among newcomers — 67% are either already struggling or would struggle before payments rose 15%, compared with 53% of recent first-time buyers.

Rental income is also increasingly propping up ownership. Across all homeowners, 36% say they need to rent part of their home to afford ownership, up from 25% in 2021.

Among newcomers, that share reaches 53%, nearly double the 29% among recent first-time buyers. Mortgage renewal pressures are exposing Canada's widening income gap, with Carl De Souza, senior vice president and sector lead for North American financial institution ratings at Morningstar DBRS in Toronto, pointing to a deepening divide between households that are well-cushioned and those under strain.

“Those pockets of stressed borrowers don’t have a lot of capacity for anything – whether that’s higher inflation levels where they’re paying more for gas and food, or God forbid they have a car repair or a house repair,” De Souza recently told Canadian Mortgage Professional.

“They just don’t have a lot of disposable income left.”

Confidence in homeownership holds

Despite the strain, housing confidence has remained broadly resilient. Some 76% of Canadians agree that real estate is a good long-term investment, while 74% classify mortgages as "good debt" — a figure that rises to 79% among newcomers.

Among non-owners, pessimism has eased from its 2023 peak: 32% now say they never expect to own a home, down from 51% two years ago, though 66% say current conditions have delayed their buying plans.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation's (CMHC) Spring 2026 analysis confirms the renewal wave has peaked but the pressure is far from over.

Leah Zlatkin, a licensed mortgage broker and expert at LowestRates.ca, recently told CMP that "even a modest increase in the rate can change the household budget quickly," an observation the MPC's own data bears out.

"Canadians continue to value homeownership, but they need a system that supports them through today's affordability pressures," van den Berg said.

"That means increasing consumer choice, better access to professional mortgage advice, and advancing practical policy solutions that keep the dream of homeownership within reach."

CMP

We hope you are finding our Blog informative and enjoyable to read while keeping you up to date with the ever changing real estate market. 

Please feel free to contact me via Direct/Text or e-mail at any time and my team will be pleased to assist you, family members and friends with all your real estate needs. Referrals are always welcome and rewarded!

Bank of Canada governor calms inflation fears as July 15 decision looms

Canada's annual inflation rate climbed to 3.2% in May 2026, its highest reading since December 2023, as soaring gasoline prices pushed the consumer price index (CPI) above the Bank of Canada's (BoC) 1-3% target range for the first time in nearly two and a half years.

For mortgage brokers advising clients on rate strategy this summer, the more consequential question is whether the surge signals something deeper. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem moved quickly to answer it.

"There's no evidence of generalized inflation. So far, the rise in inflation is very much reflecting the rise in global energy prices related to the war in Iran," Macklem told reporters from Paris on Tuesday.

Statistics Canada released the May figure on Monday, surpassing the analyst consensus of 3.0% and accelerating from 2.8% in April 2026.

Gasoline prices rose 33.2% year over year, driven by the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Services showing price pressure, including air transportation, traced almost entirely to jet fuel surcharges, Macklem noted, and the share of goods and services with annual price growth above 3% remained close to historical norms.

The BoC's preferred core measures – trim and median – averaged 2.1% in May, unchanged from April and well inside the central bank's 2% target.

The recent US-Iran peace agreement, Macklem added, is already helping to drive down global oil prices and reduce near-term inflation risk.

Food inflation remains a concern

Energy framing aside, stubborn grocery prices complicated the picture. The cost of food from grocery stores climbed half a percentage point to 4.3% year over year in May, led by fresh fruit and vegetables, with Statistics Canada attributing the increase to reduced supply and higher fuel costs.

"But yes, there is no question that we are very aware that higher food price inflation is impacting many Canadians," Macklem said, adding that the BoC is examining whether the trend reflects weather effects or elevated transportation costs.

What July 15 means for brokers

The BoC held its policy rate at 2.25% for the fifth consecutive time on June 10, and will update its forecasts alongside its next rate decision on July 15.

Three of Canada's most closely watched bank economics teams read May's data as energy-driven rather than systemic. Abbey Xu, an economist at RBC Economics, concluded that the May report showed headline inflation remained heavily influenced by energy prices "while underlying inflation trends continue to move broadly in line with the Bank of Canada's inflation target."

At TD Economics, senior economist Leslie Preston was more direct: "We expect May to mark the peak for headline inflation this year."

For brokers on the ground, the picture has not materially shifted. Leah Zlatkin, licensed mortgage broker and expert at LowestRates.ca, told Canadian Mortgage Professional earlier this year that "there's no clear signal that rates are heading materially lower, and in some cases we're already seeing lenders adjust pricing upward."

Andrew Hencic, director and senior economist at TD Economics, reinforced that view after June's hold: "given the competing forces on inflation, we expect the Bank of Canada to stay on hold through the balance of the year."

With shelter inflation easing to 1.7% year over year in May and the prime lending rate holding at 4.45%, rate relief remains out of reach. As Bank of Canada's rate outlook for 2026 points to a prolonged hold, clients approaching renewal face a prolonged period of stability, and the July 15 Monetary Policy Report will be the first opportunity to see whether the BoC's own forecasts have changed.

CMP

We hope you are finding our Blog informative and enjoyable to read while keeping you up to date with the ever changing real estate market. 

Please feel free to contact me via Direct/Text or e-mail at any time and my team will be pleased to assist you, family members and friends with all your real estate needs. Referrals are always welcome and rewarded!

Mortgage rates have dropped nearly 1.5 points in a year. But not everyone got the same deal.

When the Bank of Canada started cutting rates in June 2024, the general assumption was that relief would flow through the mortgage market fairly broadly. Rates would fall, affordability would improve, and the renewal wave would hurt less than people feared. That story is largely true. But Statistics Canada's April 2026 lending data tells a more specific version of it — and the specifics matter a lot for how brokers talk to clients today. 

The headline figure looks good: the volume-weighted average rate on total insured residential mortgages was 4.16 per cent in April 2026, down from 4.51 per cent a year earlier and 5.63 per cent two years ago. A 147-basis-point drop over two years is meaningful. But that's an average. Once you break it down by product type, a very different picture emerges. 

Where the cuts actually went 

Variable-rate borrowers got the most. The insured variable rate dropped from 6.97 per cent in April 2024 all the way to 3.79 per cent today — a 318-basis-point decline over two years, slightly more than the policy rate move itself. Uninsured variable borrowers saw something similar: 6.84 per cent to 3.88 per cent, down 296 basis points. 

Shorter-term fixed rates did well too. The insured one-to-three-year fixed fell 156 basis points over two years, from 6.19 per cent to 4.63 per cent. The insured three-to-five-year fixed — now the market's most popular term — dropped from 5.10 per cent to 3.87 per cent, down 123 basis points. 

The long end tells a completely different story. The insured five-year-and-over fixed rate went from 4.92 per cent in April 2024 to 3.98 per cent in April 2025. In April 2026, it's sitting at 3.97 per cent — a single basis point lower than a year ago. Essentially all of the two-year improvement happened in the first year. The past twelve months produced nothing. 

The uninsured five-year-and-over has moved from 5.30 per cent two years ago to 4.18 per cent today — down 112 basis points — but 100 of those came in the first year. The last twelve months: 12 basis points. 

Why the long end stopped moving 

This comes down to how fixed rates are actually priced. Five-year fixed mortgages don't track the Bank of Canada's overnight rate — they track the Government of Canada five-year bond yield. Bond yields reflect where markets think inflation and interest rates are heading over the long run, and those expectations have been pushed around by things that have nothing to do with Tiff Macklem. 

The Middle East conflict pushed oil prices higher and stoked inflation worries. Five-year GoC bond yields, as tracked by Canadian Mortgage Professional, rose roughly 69 basis points after the conflict escalated in late February. That rise only partially unwound by April. The result is that borrowers choosing a five-year fixed right now are paying a geopolitical risk premium embedded in the bond market — whether they know it or not. 

Sal Guatieri at BMO Capital Markets described the macro picture in January: "with rates now at the low end of neutral and inflation still moderately above target, the easing cycle is probably over." The Bank of Canada held again in June — fifth time running. RBC Economics isn't expecting hikes before 2027, but the bond market path — and with it, five-year fixed pricing — stays highly sensitive to what happens next in the Middle East and with inflation. 

A client exercise worth doing 

The Statistics Canada data makes a specific exercise possible that brokers can actually use. Take a client's current rate — based on when they originated and what term they chose — and map it against where the market sits now. 

A client who took an uninsured five-year fixed in April 2024 locked in at around 5.30 per cent. If they're renewing today, or approaching maturity, the best available uninsured three-to-five-year fix is 3.89 per cent. That's 141 basis points. On a $500,000 mortgage, that's about $400 less per month. 

A client who went insured variable in April 2024 at 6.97 per cent and held it through the cutting cycle is now at 3.79 per cent. Their payments have already fallen by over $1,000 per month on a comparable balance. They might be wondering whether to lock in now. The data suggests the floor on variable is close, and the five-year fixed has barely moved in a year. Whether to lock in — and at which term — isn't a question the data answers. But it's the question the data makes urgent. 

The odd thing happening at the short end 

There's one more wrinkle worth flagging. The insured one-to-three-year fixed currently sits at 4.63 per cent. The insured five-year-and-over fixed is at 3.97 per cent. That means the shorter term is actually more expensive than the longer one — the opposite of the normal relationship. 

This inverted pricing reflects a yield curve that sees modest rate increases down the road, combined with heavy lender competition at the five-year point that's compressed pricing there. For clients who just want the lowest rate available — first-time buyers, clients renewing with limited equity — the three-to-five-year fixed at 3.87 per cent (insured) or 3.89 per cent (uninsured) is cheaper than most big bank five-year fixes and cheaper than variable was as recently as last October. That's a useful fact to have going into a rate conversation. 

As the CMP Top 75 Brokers report noted, what separates the best brokers right now is treating renewal as an advisory conversation, not just an admin task. The Statistics Canada rate data gives you the raw material for that conversation — where rates have been, where they are, and why the next year probably won't look as good for long-term fixed borrowers as the last two did. 

CMP

We hope you are finding our Blog informative and enjoyable to read while keeping you up to date with the ever changing real estate market. 

Please feel free to contact me via Direct/Text or e-mail at any time and my team will be pleased to assist you, family members and friends with all your real estate needs. Referrals are always welcome and rewarded!