Starter homes and select condos lead Toronto's tentative spring recovery

Toronto's housing market posted its second consecutive month of year-over-year sales gains in April, but brokers on the ground say the rebound is anything but broad-based with entry-level segments doing the heavy lifting while premium properties and micro-condos remain largely stagnant.

Figures released on Tuesday by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) showed 5,946 home sales recorded in the GTA in April, a 7% increase compared with the same time last year. New listings were down 9.3% year over year to 17,097, a tightening dynamic that suggests more competition among buyers in at least some corners of the market.

The average selling price ticked lower from a year earlier, falling by 4.9% to $1,051,969, although prices showed early signs of stabilizing on a month-over-month basis.

"We have experienced an uptick in home buying activity so far this spring," said TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld. "Buyers have taken advantage of more affordable housing market conditions on the back of lower home prices. If market conditions continue to tighten and home prices level off, this could be a signal to intending homebuyers who remain on the sidelines."

Marshall Tully, a Toronto-area mortgage broker, said the activity he's seeing closely tracks that picture, although it's concentrated in specific price bands.

"There's definitely more activity in certain segments," he told Canadian Mortgage Professional. "For Toronto, it'd be the starter home. The $1.1 million to $1.8 million [range] in the downtown core has been pretty active, and then condos are starting to pick up a little bit [too]."

A condo segment starting to stir

The condo market has been a major source of drama in Toronto over the past few years, with prices sliding as demand plummeted amid appraisal issues, climbing interest rates and lower immigration — once a key source of purchase activity.

But recently on the condo side, Tully says sub-$600,000 units with meaningful amenities have been drawing disproportionate interest, even attracting bidding wars in some cases.

"Those units were probably $700,000 to $750,000 a year and a half ago," he said. "So what you're getting as a value for that price point is now starting to make sense for someone getting into their first home."

The story is different at the lower end of the condo market, especially when it comes to the notoriously cramped units that sprung up around the city in recent years. "If you get down to a sub-500 square foot condo with not a lot of amenities, there are hundreds of them available and there's not a lot of action there," Tully said.

Policy tools gaining traction with first-time buyers

Policy changes have also been a factor for first-time buyers. The federal government's expansion of insured mortgage eligibility — including 30-year amortizations for insured mortgages — appears to be gaining traction among clients.

"Most clients that are buying and qualify for that 30-year amortization are taking it — not so much to qualify, just more so to give themselves breathing room," Tully said. He added that borrowers can still use prepayment privileges to pay down their mortgage faster if cash flow allows, making the longer amortization a risk-management tool as much as an affordability one.

TRREB's chief information officer Jason Mercer pointed to ongoing headwinds that have kept a lid on the recovery. "We still have a substantial amount of pent-up demand in the marketplace," he said. "More certainty on the trade front and an easing in geopolitical tensions would result in further improvements in market activity."

Tully echoed that caution, highlighting uncertainty around the conflict in Iran and ongoing Canada-US trade negotiations as factors keeping many would-be buyers on the sidelines. Premium and luxury housing, he said, remains largely frozen.

Still, he sees a case for buyers who are financially stable and committed to where they want to live. "For those that are in strong employment positions and know where they want to live for five or more years, or are starting a family, there are opportunities."

A key question now for mortgage market watchers: does the current moment mark the early stages of a long normalization following years of historically low transaction volumes, or could the ongoing freeze stretch on longer than expected?

Tully said the COVID-era buying frenzy pulled forward demand that would otherwise have sustained the market through recent years — and that imbalance is still working itself out.

On rates, he offered a note of urgency for fence-sitters: "Rates have certainly bottomed out and are probably going to start moving in the other direction — meaning upwards. That might be somewhat short-lived until we get oil prices back down and the Iran war situation resolved."

As for where prices are headed, he sees most of the market approaching a floor — with one notable exception.

"I think people are starting to see that it's not the worst time to jump in and are starting to get a bit more comfortable with the idea," he said. "But there are some segments, like those smaller condos, that might continue to go down a little bit. There's a ton of inventory that's going to take a while to get soaked up."

CMP

We hope you are finding our Blog informative and enjoyable to read while keeping you up to date with the ever changing real estate market. 

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Fixed vs. variable: Homeowners weigh options after Bank of Canada keeps rate unchanged

The Bank of Canada’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday came as no surprise to the mortgage industry – but it leaves plenty of questions for borrowers weighing up the best choice on interest rates.

The central bank’s announcement kept the policy rate at 2.25%, meaning variable rates and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) will remain unchanged. Meanwhile, five-year Government of Canada bond yields have ticked upward since last week, likely increasing fixed rates.

The Bank’s statement on Wednesday heavily referenced the ongoing geopolitical strife caused by the war in Iran, which has sent financial markets into a tailspin and spiked the price of oil over the past several weeks.

That turmoil showed little sign of easing on Thursday morning as US president Donald Trump warned the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could last months, and the central bank clearly remains worried about inflation if the oil crisis risks inflaming prices further.

Governor Tiff Macklem struck a careful tone in remarks at Wednesday’s press conference, signalling that the policy rate will likely remain steady for now but could change depending on the crisis in the Middle East.

Homeowners and homebuyers, then, are left in the lurch as they ponder the interest rate path ahead and wait to see what could lie in store for borrowing costs when the time comes to purchase a home or renew their mortgage.

“Among homeowners, there’s a good number of them that are expecting to see their payments rise,” Steve Ng, a senior district manager with TD, told Canadian Mortgage Professional. According to recent TD research, “more than half of them say that because of that, they’re going to have to cut back on things like day-to-day spending,” he said.

Borrowers’ risk appetite remains central to decisions

Each borrower’s specific circumstances are different, but Ng said he’s still seeing a decisive shift toward fixed-rate mortgages in the current environment.

“If they’re looking for comfort, then fixed rates are where it’s at,” he said. “Variable rates may suit some, but for the most part, more and more Canadians now are moving to those fixed rates because of that uncertainty going forward.”

Three- and five-year terms are especially attractive to borrowers at present, he said, because they allow peace of mind during a potentially prolonged period of instability.

That mightn’t offer significant comfort for borrowers emerging from ultra-low pandemic-era mortgages who enjoyed rock-bottom rates when they bought in 2021 or early 2022.

But with most economists now expecting the Bank of Canada to sit on the sidelines for a prolonged spell (potentially through this year and 2027) could variable-rate options grow in appeal if they’re expected to remain steady?

Again, Ng said it depends on borrowers’ individual risk appetites. “Because the Bank of Canada’s approach right now is to wait and see, we could potentially see a larger disparity between variable rates and fixed rates,” he said.

“When we’ve seen that happen in the past… people start looking at their pocketbooks. Some people are willing to take that risk with variable, but to each their own. Everybody needs to assess the risk for themselves, and everybody’s situation is different.”

‘We want people to engage their advisors sooner’

Mortgage professionals have long emphasized the need for borrowers not to rest on their laurels and wait for their mortgage renewals to arrive, stressing the importance of a proactive approach to explore all options and gain a full understanding of their financial picture.

That’s even more essential in the current environment, according to Ng, with economic uncertainty showing no sign of fading anytime soon.

“We want people to engage their advisors sooner,” he said. “Human nature is always to procrastinate and to wait to see what happens. People will always hope that things will get better, but the reality is that the sooner they engage their institution, the more options they have and the less they’ll get caught off guard.

“You can still put some meaningful discussions and plans in place now, even if you don’t make a decision today. You can potentially have some backups that you can work towards.”

CMP

We hope you are finding our Blog informative and enjoyable to read while keeping you up to date with the ever changing real estate market. 

Please feel free to contact me via Direct/Text or e-mail at any time and my team will be pleased to assist you, family members and friends with all your real estate needs. Referrals are always welcome and rewarded!

CREA downgrades Canada home sales, price forecast for 2026

Canadian home sales in March 2026 barely budged, but the mood in the mortgage market clearly darkened.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has downgraded its forecast for 2026 sales amid a stormy economic climate and continuing uncertainty over the housing market.

The assciation reported that transactions through MLS systems dipped just 0.1% from February, with actual activity 2.3% below a year earlier and prices still drifting lower.

A spike in oil prices late in the month stoked inflation fears, pushed up bond yields and triggered a mid‑March jump in fixed mortgage rates, just as the critical spring market approached.

CREA’s senior economist Shaun Cathcart said that combination has weighed on already fragile sentiment.

“Home sales activity remained at lower levels in March, as rising global economic uncertainty, along with a mid‑month jump in fixed mortgage rates tied to incoming higher inflation, piled on to an already shaky economic start to the year,” Cathcart said.

“2026 is still expected to see a modest amount of upward momentum in sales and a stabilization in prices as some pent‑up first‑time buyer demand enters the market, but the forecast for the year has had to be revised downward.”

Forecast cut as global shocks hit confidence

CREA now expects national home sales to rise just 1% in 2026, to about 475,000 transactions. That's down from the 5.1% growth it projected in January.

The national average price was forecast to climb 1.5% to roughly $689,000 – about $10,000 lower than CREA’s previous call – with almost no growth in British Columbia, Alberta and Ontario and modest gains elsewhere. 

Cathcart linked the downgrade directly to geopolitical turmoil.

“Unfortunately, as it pertains to the forecast, we’ve had to change that and lower it because of the situation in the Middle East and the oil shock,” he told CBC News.

He added that buyers are also watching how the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran would filter through to global growth and interest rates, saying “these massive global disasters, really, … continue to unfold.”

Balanced market, but buyers stayed cautious

On the ground, market balance stayed relatively stable. New listings edged down 0.2% month over month in March and sat at their lowest levels since mid‑2024, helping keep the national sales‑to‑new‑listings ratio at 47.8% – comfortably within CREA’s “balanced” range.

The National Composite MLS Home Price Index fell 0.4% from February and 4.7% year over year, while the actual national average price slipped 0.8% from March 2025 to $673,084.

“While the interest rate situation has recently changed, what could be a challenge for a buyer looking for a fixed rate mortgage may also be seen as more choice and less competition for those choosing a variable rate,” said CREA chair Garry Bhaura.

“Spring tended to be a busier time of year for the housing market, even if it may not have been quite as busy as we were expecting not so long ago. For those of you not impacted by the recent jump in mortgage rates, get working with a local REALTOR® today.”

What it meant for mortgage professionals

For brokers and lenders, the March figures reinforce a story they have already been watching: demand that exists on paper, but often not in approvals.

In 2025, external shocks – then in the form of US tariff threats – had already kept a lid on activity despite lower rates.

Despite CREA’s downgrade, the association still expects modest price and sales growth in 2026 and 2027. 

CMP

We hope you are finding our Blog informative and enjoyable to read while keeping you up to date with the ever changing real estate market. 

Please feel free to contact me via Direct/Text or e-mail at any time and my team will be pleased to assist you, family members and friends with all your real estate needs. Referrals are always welcome and rewarded!

Toronto and Vancouver slump masks stronger housing markets across Canada

 It’s no secret that Canada’s spring housing market is off to a slow start as a host of factors – economic uncertainty, rising interest rates, affordability challenges and more – continue to weigh down the national outlook.

But while the two largest markets, Toronto and Vancouver, are facing a gloomy few months ahead, they could be overshadowing other cities where prospects are markedly better.

Home sales and prices are expected to continue sliding in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Greater Vancouver Area (GVA) between now and the end of 2026, with their spiralling condo sectors likely to drive much of that decline.

Still, a new forecast by Royal LePage shows 10 of 12 major metropolitan cities are expected to see average prices tick up by January, with only Toronto and Vancouver in the red on price growth.

Some of those projected increases are noteworthy. Halifax, Winnipeg, and Regina are all expected to see average prices rise by 4%, with the Greater Montreal Area slated for 5% growth and Quebec City poised for a bumper 12% jump in prices.

Edmonton, Calgary, and Ottawa are expected to see milder growth (2.0%, 1.5%, and 2.0% respectively) with declines in Toronto and Vancouver (-4.5% and -3.5%) dragging the national average down to a modest 1.0%.

Buyers ‘looking beyond geopolitical issues’ in less pricey markets: Soper

For Royal LePage’s president and chief executive officer Phil Soper (pictured top), those contrasting fortunes highlight the absence of a truly “national” Canadian housing market and the radical divergence at play between different cities.

And while there’s been plenty of discussion in recent weeks about homebuyers stepping to the sidelines because of the economic uncertainty caused by the war in Iran, Soper told Canadian Mortgage Professional he believes those geopolitical concerns are less of a factor for homebuyers in more affordable markets outside the notoriously overpriced Toronto and Vancouver regions.

In less pricey northern Ontario markets, for instance, Soper said recent conversations with regional brokerages showed the main challenges facing homebuyers are the same as before the outbreak of the trade war last year and the Iran conflict in February: handling multiple-offer situations, improving housing inventory, and “lighting a fire” under policymakers to boost construction.

“In parts of the country where home prices are moderate, people are looking beyond the geopolitical issues – America’s war on Iran, the on-again, off-again trade threats from President Trump,” he said.

“They’re looking beyond that and saying, ‘All right, let’s get into this market. Mortgage rates are reasonable, home prices have been flat, but they’re likely to start rising again, so I should get into the market because my job’s solid.’ And we’re seeing that right across the country.”

The rosy forecast for Quebec City was spurred in part by a spectacular first quarter for the city’s housing market, where aggregate prices jumped by 10.7% in the opening three months of the year.

Single-family detached home prices hit $508,500, rising by 11.1%, a trend that Soper said reflected the lack of supply and rising demand for properties in that city.

Toronto and Vancouver still much pricier than elsewhere – but the gap is narrowing

Another trend that jumps off the page from the company’s latest market report: the price gap between the Toronto and Vancouver markets and the rest of the country is slowly narrowing thanks to falling values in those two cities and climbing prices elsewhere.

In 2022, the gap between aggregate home prices in Toronto and Montreal was around $800,000, Soper said. By the fourth quarter of last year it had dropped to $440,000 – and it fell further in 2026’s first quarter, slipping to $375,000.

Even when prices were sky-high in Toronto and Vancouver – for instance, in the period of rampant appreciation during the COVID-19 pandemic – many buyers still felt the time was right to jump into the market amid lower interest rates and higher savings trends.

But while prices have fallen in those cities, they’re still higher than in other Canadian markets and the economic uncertainty generated by the Iran war and tariff turmoil tends to be a bigger factor for buyers there than elsewhere, according to Soper.

“When people are super incented and sure that they need to get into the market, they’ll look beyond affordability challenges and leap in,” he said. “When they’re uncertain anyway and they feel that prices are stretched and too high, they’ll easily use it as an excuse to sit tight for another month or two, another quarter. And that’s what we’ve been seeing in Toronto and Vancouver for sure.”

CMP

We hope you are finding our Blog informative and enjoyable to read while keeping you up to date with the ever changing real estate market. 

Please feel free to contact me via Direct/Text or e-mail at any time and my team will be pleased to assist you, family members and friends with all your real estate needs. Referrals are always welcome and rewarded!

CREA downgrades Canada home sales, price forecast for 2026

Canadian home sales in March 2026 barely budged, but the mood in the mortgage market clearly darkened.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has downgraded its forecast for 2026 sales amid a stormy economic climate and continuing uncertainty over the housing market.

The assciation reported that transactions through MLS systems dipped just 0.1% from February, with actual activity 2.3% below a year earlier and prices still drifting lower.

A spike in oil prices late in the month stoked inflation fears, pushed up bond yields and triggered a mid‑March jump in fixed mortgage rates, just as the critical spring market approached.

CREA’s senior economist Shaun Cathcart said that combination has weighed on already fragile sentiment.

“Home sales activity remained at lower levels in March, as rising global economic uncertainty, along with a mid‑month jump in fixed mortgage rates tied to incoming higher inflation, piled on to an already shaky economic start to the year,” Cathcart said.

“2026 is still expected to see a modest amount of upward momentum in sales and a stabilization in prices as some pent‑up first‑time buyer demand enters the market, but the forecast for the year has had to be revised downward.”

Forecast cut as global shocks hit confidence

CREA now expects national home sales to rise just 1% in 2026, to about 475,000 transactions. That's down from the 5.1% growth it projected in January.

The national average price was forecast to climb 1.5% to roughly $689,000 – about $10,000 lower than CREA’s previous call – with almost no growth in British Columbia, Alberta and Ontario and modest gains elsewhere. 

Cathcart linked the downgrade directly to geopolitical turmoil.

“Unfortunately, as it pertains to the forecast, we’ve had to change that and lower it because of the situation in the Middle East and the oil shock,” he told CBC News.

He added that buyers are also watching how the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran would filter through to global growth and interest rates, saying “these massive global disasters, really, … continue to unfold.”

Balanced market, but buyers stayed cautious

On the ground, market balance stayed relatively stable. New listings edged down 0.2% month over month in March and sat at their lowest levels since mid‑2024, helping keep the national sales‑to‑new‑listings ratio at 47.8% – comfortably within CREA’s “balanced” range.

The National Composite MLS Home Price Index fell 0.4% from February and 4.7% year over year, while the actual national average price slipped 0.8% from March 2025 to $673,084.

“While the interest rate situation has recently changed, what could be a challenge for a buyer looking for a fixed rate mortgage may also be seen as more choice and less competition for those choosing a variable rate,” said CREA chair Garry Bhaura.

“Spring tended to be a busier time of year for the housing market, even if it may not have been quite as busy as we were expecting not so long ago. For those of you not impacted by the recent jump in mortgage rates, get working with a local REALTOR® today.”

What it meant for mortgage professionals

For brokers and lenders, the March figures reinforce a story they have already been watching: demand that exists on paper, but often not in approvals.

In 2025, external shocks – then in the form of US tariff threats – had already kept a lid on activity despite lower rates.

CMP

We hope you are finding our Blog informative and enjoyable to read while keeping you up to date with the ever changing real estate market. 

Please feel free to contact me via Direct/Text or e-mail at any time and my team will be pleased to assist you, family members and friends with all your real estate needs. Referrals are always welcome and rewarded!