Real estate giant sees cause for cautious optimism in 2026 housing market

The Canadian housing market is positioned for modest growth in 2026, with more buyers preparing to enter the market as inventory normalizes and price pressures ease, according to REMAX Canada's latest outlook released this week.

The brokerage expects national home sales to climb 3.4% next year, a turnaround from 2025's decline across most regions.

One in 10 Canadians said they plan to purchase a home in the next 12 months, with half being first-time buyers, according to a Leger survey commissioned by REMAX Canada conducted October 24-26, 2025.

"Amid looming economic clouds, Canadians are maintaining their interest in homeownership," said Don Kottick, president of REMAX Canada.

"The resilience that began to emerge in the fall is anticipated to continue into 2026, with first-time buyers in particular finding creative ways to save and enter the market."

The market's shift from shortage to surplus is beginning to favour buyers. Inventory increased year-over-year across 75.8% of regions in 2025, contributing to steeper price declines. REMAX projects average national prices will moderate a further 3.7% in 2026.

Rate sensitivity remains a key variable

Perhaps more tellingly, 23% of Canadian respondents said they would be ready to buy if the Bank of Canada reduced rates by another 0.5 to 1%. This underscores how rate-sensitive demand remains, even as economic conditions gradually improve.

The BoC will move away from rate hikes and toward cuts next year as inflation stabilizes and employment concerns take center stage, according to IG Wealth Management's 2026 Market Outlook.

Among younger Canadians aged 18-35, optimism runs higher. Twenty-one percent believe the economy will improve next year, compared to just 16% of all respondents.

However, this demographic faces return-to-office mandates. Some 17% of Canadians expressed concern about RTO policies affecting their housing search, with younger buyers more likely to factor commute times and transit access into their decisions.

"Transit access is becoming an increasingly important factor for younger Canadians seeking their first home," Kottick said. "Many are weighing commute times and workplace flexibility more carefully in their search."

Some provinces are seeing fewer remote workers moving from Toronto and Vancouver, but other buyer types are still moving to less pricey areas.

“I’m seeing more and more young people come here, renting and setting up shop here,” Sarah Albert, a Moncton-based mortgage broker with Premiere Mortgage, told Canadian Mortgage Professional.

“They’re not coming here right from Ontario and buying – they’re just switching provinces.”

Regional divergence persists

Market conditions remain uneven across the country. In the Greater Toronto Area, prices fell 3.5% year-over-year through October, while Vancouver's high-end segment dropped 6.3%.

Atlantic Canada, on the other hand, projects 3-5% price growth, backed by steady in-migration and new construction activity.

While uncertainty lingers, shifting supply-demand dynamics are creating windows for motivated buyers, particularly first-time purchasers willing to act strategically.

CMP

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