Canadian homeowners facing higher monthly payments when they renew their mortgage are handling that trend well – but there could still be speedbumps ahead with a slew of renewals coming in 2026.
That’s according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), which painted a measured picture of that coming renewal wave in its latest residential mortgage industry report, released this week.
The national housing agency highlighted that while there’s been no mortgage crisis yet from renewals, there were still more than 750,000 mortgages scheduled to renew in the second half of 2025, followed by upwards of a million more next year and 940,000 in 2027.
Interest rates may have fallen recently, but the average five-year fixed uninsured mortgage rate was still 67% higher in July 2025 than the same time five years previously, when rates plunged amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
For now, borrowers are managing any higher-payment pain that’s arising. For the first time since 2022, the national mortgage delinquency rate fell in the second quarter although Ontario and British Columbia, the two priciest provinces for real estate, saw arrears climb.
Questions around a potential mortgage renewal “cliff” arose in 2023 and 2024, when a series of rapid interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada first sparked concerns that many borrowers would prove unable to handle the jump in payments.
However, the central bank has since cut rates nine times, improving the outlook somewhat even though borrowing costs remain much higher than they were five years before.
Brokers urge proactive approach to manage renewals
Mortgage brokers are also taking a calm view of the market as 2026 looms into view. Victor Tran (pictured top), a mortgage agent with Tango Financial and RATESDOTCA housing and mortgage expert, told Canadian Mortgage Professional it’s essential for borrowers to shop around as early as possible when their mortgage is coming up for renewal.
For some lenders, turnaround times can be slow because refinance transactions and mortgage transfers from one lender to another simply aren’t a priority compared with the purchase side.
“So it’s important for Canadians to shop as early as possible so they have enough time to complete a mortgage transfer should they find a lower rate elsewhere,” Tran said. “Most people, unfortunately, still wait until the last minute.
“We’re talking about a couple of weeks or even a month before the renewal day. Start shopping around and by then it might be a little too late – but not impossible. You can still transfer to a different lender for a lower rate.”
But borrowers who don’t give themselves enough time to begin that process can complicate things: firstly, they would likely have to renew with their current lender into an open term to buy themselves some more time to complete the mortgage transfer.
“It’s just a little messier, a little bit more interest that they have to pay going into an open mortgage because open mortgages have full flexibility to pay out at any time with no penalty,” Tran said. “But the rate’s a lot higher so it’s always best to avoid that by just starting early.”
Delinquency trends suggest strain will remain contained
For now, there doesn’t appear to be any sign that a mortgage renewal meltdown is ahead. Mortgage delinquency rates are still lower than those in other credit products – unsurprisingly, as mortgage payments are normally a top priority for borrowers.
That said, delinquency rates for Canadians who hold mortgages are increasing at a faster clip than for those who don’t, including credit card, auto loan, and line of credit arrears.
Another delinquency trend of interest to the mortgage space: in the mortgage investment entity (MIE) sector, delinquency rates of 90 days or more fell in 2025’s first quarter compared with Q4 of last year, although they were still higher on a year-over-year basis.
The same couldn’t be said for chartered banks and credit unions, where delinquency rates increased but were still lower than pre-pandemic levels.
CMP
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