Housing market activity posted another mild recent uptick across Canada, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) – although the pace of home sales and price growth isn’t exactly consistent from one market to the next.
RBC’s Monthly Housing Market Update, which analyzes the latest figures, noted significant rebounds in home resales across major cities, with Toronto leading at an 8.1% month-over-month increase, followed by Vancouver at 2.8%, Edmonton at 3%, and Montreal at 1.8%.
Despite these gains, the national composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) slipped by 0.2% from May—marking its seventh consecutive monthly decline.
The banking giant said falling prices are “bringing some welcome affordability relief” to prospective buyers after years of soaring ownership costs during the pandemic.
But continuing uncertainty about the future of the economy thanks to US tariffs is also casting a shadow over the housing market. That trade war remains a huge concern in the eyes of many buyers, Toronto mortgage broker Micky Khaneka told Canadian Mortgage Professional, with little sign that Canadian negotiators and their US counterparts are close to striking a deal.
Regional disparities deepen
While activity picked up nationwide, the market continued to exhibit stark regional differences. RBC observed that price drops were most pronounced in southern Ontario and British Columbia, areas grappling with high inventory levels and affordability challenges.
Among the hardest-hit regions were Guelph, where prices dropped 2.5% from May, and Niagara, which fell by 1.5%. Other markets facing declines included Toronto (-0.9%), Fraser Valley (-1%), London (-1.2%), Windsor (-0.8%), Cambridge (-0.4%), and Vancouver (-0.1%).
“These markets have seen some of the most significant weakening over the past year as supply-demand conditions shift heavily into the buyer’s favour,” RBC said, noting that many sellers are facing stiffer competition amid historically high listings.
Toronto’s condo market remains the epicentre of Canada’s homebuying slowdown. Prices and activity are sliding in that beleaguered space, and there could be a while to run yet in the escalating crisis for homeowners, according to broker Taz Zaide.
Strength in the Prairies and Atlantic Canada
Conversely, property values in the Prairies, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada remained robust. Regina recorded a 7.9% year-over-year price increase, while Saskatoon and Winnipeg each posted gains of over 7%. Quebec City led price growth with a 16.4% jump.
Markets in Fredericton (11.3%), Saint John (12.9%), Halifax (4%), and St. John’s (12.3%) also saw solid annual increases. Most of these regions experienced monthly price gains in June, supported by tighter supply-demand conditions.
Calgary and Edmonton presented a mixed picture. While homebuying activity levelled off, prices have started easing amid growing inventory.
Newfoundland and Labrador broker Andrew Knee recently highlighted the strength of the province’s real estate market to CMP, with plenty of activity and competition for purchases – a stark contrast to traditionally stronger markets like Ontario and BC.
Gradual recovery expected to continue
RBC expects the gradual recovery of resales to persist as consumer confidence builds and interest rate cuts take effect. However, the report cautioned that divergent price trends are likely to continue.
“We see little that would alter the diverging price trends in the near term,” RBC stated, adding that high inventory and affordability constraints may weigh on Ontario and B.C., while strong demand supports gains elsewhere in Canada.
CMP
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