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Wednesday, September 25, 2024

Macklem pleased inflation back to target – but wants more core easing

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said he’s pleased inflation is back to the central bank’s 2% target but he wants to see more easing in core measures and shelter prices.

In a speech at a financial conference in Toronto, Macklem said policymakers now “want to keep inflation close to the center of the 1% to 3% inflation-control band” and said that officials still “need to stick the landing.”

He reiterated that the bank wants to see economic growth “strengthen further,” and it’s reasonable to expect more interest rate cuts given the progress that it’s seen on inflation.

Last week, Statistics Canada reported that the consumer price index rose by 2% in August on a yearly basis — the slowest rate of increase since early 2021. The central bank’s two preferred core inflation measures also eased but are still elevated, averaging 2.35% on a yearly basis from 2.55% a month earlier.

“We’ve been pleased to see inflation come all the way back to the 2% target,” Macklem said. “It has been a long journey.”

It’s the first time Macklem has commented on price pressures hitting the bank’s target, though he mostly echoed remarks by Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers at a Bloomberg event last week.

Macklem also warned that growth may be below policymakers’ previous expectations in the third quarter. In July, the bank had forecast the economy would expand at a 2.8% annualized rate over those three months, but preliminary data point to a weaker pace.

“Some recent indicators suggest growth may not be as strong as we expected,” he said. “We will be closely watching consumer spending, as well as business hiring and investment.”

Officials have already lowered rates three times since June, bringing the overnight rate to 4.25%, and they’ve signaled more cuts to come. Economists see mounting weakness in the labor market, and some of them are calling on policymakers to start making bigger moves to bring down borrowing costs.

Earlier this month, Macklem repeated that officials may cut rates by 50 basis points or more in one decision, if inflation and the economy slow faster than expected. But he also said they could decide to pause cuts if growth is stronger or inflation is persistent.

“The timing and pace will be determined by incoming data and our assessment of what those data mean for future inflation,” Macklem said Tuesday.

The bank next sets rates on Oct. 23, when officials will also provide a new batch of economic forecasts. Traders in overnight swaps put the odds of a 50-basis-point cut at about a coin flip for that meeting.

Macklem also said “decisive monetary policy action and the unblocking of supply chains” means “uncertainty about costs and inflation are much lower today than two years ago.”

CMP

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