What will Canadians' post-pandemic financial health look like?

Despite the steady pace of economic recovery, financial troubles are nowhere near over for Canadians, according to a new study by Equifax.

For much of the pandemic year, Canadian households have seen their credit card balances decline on average, leading to lower debt levels and fewer missed payments.

“The fact that credit card balances have fallen indicates the impact of consumers paying off more of their debt,” Equifax said. “The government-benefit induced surge in disposable income has allowed 26% more consumers to carry lower revolving balances in 2021. That reversed the trend prior to COVID, as credit card debt was growing quickly.”

The trend counteracted the significant effect of widespread job losses.

“This new data offers some hope that many others have maintained, if not improved, their financial standing over last year,” said Rebecca Oakes, AVP of advanced analytics at Equifax Canada. “Government funding programs touching many corners of the economy will offer further assistance. On the credit side, however, the numbers do suggest more of a K-shaped recovery for younger consumers with some faring better than others.”

However, businesses will likely not fare as well in the near-term, which has some troubling implications for the stability and sustainability of Canada’s economic recovery.

“As with consumer credit, lower usage has led to commercial scores increasing slightly across Canada, but this isn’t necessarily a good thing,” Oakes said. “Businesses leverage commercial credit with suppliers as part of their day-to-day operations and therefore lower activity can indicate some early stress. Small businesses need to be spending money to be making money, and right now, they’re just not spending.”

Oakes projected commercial market recovery to remain uneven.

“Low-wage workers and young people are particularly impacted by current lockdown measures,” Oakes said. “We expect, however, that once businesses can re-open, this sector of the economy will rebound strongly, but the bounce back may not be consistent for all sectors.”

MBN

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