Brokers aren’t sold on big bank prediction

One big bank has made a bold rate prediction for the near future but brokers aren’t biting.

TD Bank released its Economic Forecast Update Monday and in it forecasted another rate cut to come from the Bank of Canada in March.

“The Bank of Canada unexpectedly cut the overnight rate by 25 basis points in mid-January, on the negative impact of lower oil prices on inflation and the real economy. At that time, it also signaled that it saw most of the risks to inflation to be tilted to the downside,” the report states. “Given our weaker oil price, inflation, and output forecast relative to the Bank, it therefore holds that we expect some of those downside risks to be realized.

“As such, we forecast that the Bank of Canada will cut the overnight rate by an additional 25 basis points at its next fixed announcement date in March.”
A bold prediction, no doubt, but as one broker points out, the banks have been wrong before.

“I don’t know if it will happen; keep in mind that the banks have been making wild predictions for years,” Lior Hershkovitz of Mortgage Edge told MortgageBrokerNews.ca. “No one has a crystal ball and no one knows for sure.

“It’s certainly possible but for it to happen in March the economy will need to take a negative turn; I don’t think they want to cut too soon and in my opinion March is too soon.”

And with the banks not budging on their prime rates, one broker believes another BoC rate cut would be pointless.

“I think it will be a while before rates are cut again,” Sami Bin Saad of Invis told MortgageBrokerNews.ca. “The point of reducing the interest rate is to support borrowing and if the banks aren’t biting at the first rate drop why would they bite at a second?”

Justin da Rosa