Buyer's market without buyers: Vancouver sales slump as supply grows

Vancouver may be offering the most favourable conditions for homebuyers in years, but buyers still aren’t biting.

Home sales in the Vancouver region dropped to their lowest March level since 2019, even as inventory rose sharply across all housing types. According to the Greater Vancouver Realtors board, just 2,091 homes changed hands last month, marking a 13.4% decline from March 2024 and landing 36.8% below the region’s 10-year seasonal average.

The downturn comes even as new listings surged 29% year-over-year to 6,455, pushing total active listings to 14,546, up 37.9% from a year earlier and 15.8% above the seasonal norm.

“We’ve got almost a perfect buyers’ market kind of scenario but buyers are not really stepping in,” said Randy Ryalls, managing broker at Royal LePage Sterling Realty.

Heading into spring, many expected a stronger rebound. But Ryalls said geopolitical tensions have led potential buyers to hit pause.

“There’s still a fair bit of fence-sitting and that could be the 800-pound orange gorilla in the room,” Ryalls added.

“If you’re a buyer kind of looking at the marketplace and you’re seeing inventory growing and you’re seeing so much in the news cycle about these catastrophic economic things that could happen, I do think that it affects the general psychology a bit.

“Those things can sort of put people on the fence for a while and I think that’s what we’re seeing. I think people are sort of taking a little bit of a wait-and-see attitude right now.”

Despite rising inventory, prices have remained relatively stable. The composite benchmark price for a home in Vancouver stood at $1,190,900, down 0.6% year-over-year, but up 0.5% from February.

Andrew Lis, director of economics and data analytics for Greater Vancouver Realtors, noted that sellers appear ready to engage, but buyers haven’t followed suit.

“Buyers have not shown up in the numbers we typically see at this time of year,” he said in the report.

Lis added that despite political noise, the core housing conditions in Vancouver are arguably the most buyer-friendly in years.

“If we can set aside the political and economic uncertainty tied to the new US administration for a moment, buyers in Metro Vancouver haven’t seen market conditions this favourable in years,” he said in a press release.

“Prices have eased from recent highs, mortgage rates are among the lowest we’ve seen in years, and there are more active listings … than we’ve seen in almost a decade.”

The pullback was felt across all property types, but detached homes saw the steepest decline, with sales down 24.1% to 527 units. Apartment sales fell 10.2% to 1,084, and attached home sales dipped 4.6% to 472.

Similar patterns are beginning to show elsewhere. In Calgary, the city’s real estate board reported an 18.8% year-over-year drop in home sales for March, citing similar concerns around economic uncertainty and potential tariffs from the US.

“The threat of tariffs from south of the border” is casting a long shadow over Canada’s housing markets, the Calgary board noted.

CMP

We hope you are finding our Blog informative and enjoyable to read while keeping you up to date with the ever changing real estate market. 

Please feel free to contact me via Direct/Text or e-mail at any time and my team will be pleased to assist you, family members and friends with all your real estate needs. Referrals are always welcome and rewarded!

Windsor brokers, borrowers defiant as 'economic earthquake' nears

It remains unclear how severe the crackdown will be – but Canada’s economy is gearing up for a fresh round of US tariffs today, with Canadian steel and aluminum expected to feature prominently among exports facing so-called “retaliatory” charges from US president Donald Trump.

Windsor, ON, an automaking hotbed that straddles the US border and is just a stone’s throw from Detroit, could be one of the Canadian cities hit the hardest by Trump’s tariffs, especially if levies against car parts from Canada come into effect.

Unsurprisingly, that chaos – which some economists have warned could put thousands of Canadian jobs at risk – is featuring prominently in conversations between mortgage brokers and their clients as homeowners and hopeful buyers weigh up how a bruising trade war could impact their own circumstances.

But Windsorites are looking on the bright side as Trump’s tariffs loom, according to Mortgage Intelligence broker Rasha Ingratta (pictured), who told Canadian Mortgage Professional the prospect of lower interest rates in the event of an economic downturn could spur some mortgage market activity.

“The conversations we’re having on a daily basis with customers are, ‘How will this impact our mortgage interest rates?’ she said. “A lot of people are coming up for renewal. This year and next year are going to be our biggest years of mortgages coming up for renewal.

“I call this an economic earthquake. The average individual doesn’t really know until they start to do their research: interest rates do come down when these things happen. So it’s good news for people that are coming up for renewal.”

Could a trade war lower mortgage rates – and spur homebuying activity?

Meanwhile, those who are in a position to buy – and feel confident that their job won’t be put at risk by the tariffs – are starting to “come out of the woodwork” in anticipation of lower interest rates down the line, according to Ingratta.

The Bank of Canada is currently expected to trim its own benchmark interest rate as low as 2% this year, according to the Bank of Montreal (BMO) – and potentially lower if tariffs stay in place for longer than expected – while bond yields could tumble in the event of a sharp economic contraction as a result of Trump’s actions.

“We’re starting to see interest rates that begin with the number three and I think that by the end of this year, we’re going to start seeing interest rates in the low threes,” Ingratta said, “just because of what’s happening with the market and because of tariffs.”

But there’s no question that Windsor residents are holding their breath as they brace for the impact of a trade war and the prospect of layoffs and job losses in the automotive sector.

The pain is being felt on both sides of the border, according to Ingratta, with Detroit and Windsor residents mingling in both cities and relationships often extending across the divide.

But she’s looking on the bright side despite the potential coming chaos. “I always have a positive outlook, even when things are negative,” she said. “I really think this year is going to be a good year because interest rates are coming down. If you look at the average price of a home in Windsor, let’s say it sells for $600,000. That same house was selling for $700,000 or $750,000 a few years ago.

“A few years ago, let’s say rates were 2%. Today, they’re 3.89%. So yes, they’re higher, but your downpayment is going to be lesser. Your insurance premium is going to be less than your mortgage payments. And the government is coming up with different strategies – extending amortizations, an insured mortgage [hike]. They’re making it easier for the consumer.”

Opportunities remain despite the prospect of a trade tussle

It remains to be seen what’s coming down the line for the Canadian economy in the face of Trump’s tariff threats – or even whether they’ll come to pass, with the US president having deferred levies against Canada in both February and March.

Ingratta, though, sounded a positive note on what’s ahead. “What I tell a lot of my customers is that there’s always uncertainty in the market,” she said. “I’ve been doing this since 1999 – for 26 years. There have been a few times like 2008 where there was uncertainty in the market and people were scared.

“Just don’t worry. Give it a little bit of time. Make sure you do your homework. Make sure you strategically plan and you’ll come out doing well. Talk to the right professionals… Don’t let things like tariffs and economic uncertainty deter you.”

CMP

We hope you are finding our Blog informative and enjoyable to read while keeping you up to date with the ever changing real estate market. 

Please feel free to contact me via Direct/Text or e-mail at any time and my team will be pleased to assist you, family members and friends with all your real estate needs. Referrals are always welcome and rewarded!

Tackling US tariffs amid a housing crisis: like 'trying to catch a falling knife'

Mortgage brokers are preparing for more uncertainty on the horizon as Canada’s relationship with the US shows little sign of improving and further tariffs loom into view.  

Current Canadian prime minister Mark Carney had a phone call with Donald Trump last week that the US president described as “extremely productive”, but April 2 marks the date that further US levies on Canadian imports are set to come into play.  

With the barrage of constant updates, a sense of nervousness has taken hold of the housing market. “It's like trying to catch a falling knife,” Taz Zaide, a mortgage agent with 6ix Mortgage, told Canadian Mortgage Professional. “You're never going to be able to catch it exactly how you want it.” 

The reality of tariffs has led to housing market concerns, previously a top priority for voters, falling by the wayside. A recent poll conducted by Abacus reported that housing had slipped to fourth on the list of priorities in the upcoming federal election, with tariffs featuring in second place after the cost of living.  

Leading voter concerns 

1. 1. Reduce cost of living (45%) 
2. 2. Dealing with Donald Trump (33%) 
3. 3. Improving Canada’s healthcare system (20%) 
4. 4. Making housing more affordable (19%) 
5. 5. Growing the economy (17%)    

Zaide said a trade war is not ideal if leaders want to address the struggling housing market. “People are already fed up and there's a lot of people coming up for ‘[mortgage] renewal right now as well; they are all kind of relying on a solid housing outlook.” 

A potential inflationary spike if tariffs come into play, Zaide said, could reduce the Bank of Canada’s scope to cut interest rates.  

Brokers must work around the volatility, he added. “Policy shifts can create opportunities. They may create risks as well.”  

Will proposed tax cuts offer a reprieve to beleaguered homebuyers? 

Political leaders have promised GST cuts on home purchases to provide potential buyers with some reprieve. Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre has proposed cutting taxes on homes worth up to $1.3 million, while Carney’s $1 million proposal would apply to first-time buyers only.  

But Zaide said these cuts wouldn’t do much to improve affordability. “I don't think it's going to be enough to really move the needle,” he said.  

The main issues around homebuying amid the current crisis don’t concern downpayments but rather qualification, he said, with many people in tariff-affected industries facing tighter rules. 

BMO announced last week that those in the steel and aluminum industry now fall under a “limited appetite” industry and will face more reserve lending rules, a move that Zaide said may signal further qualification issues. 

Addressing housing crisis while dealing with tariff war: a ‘paradox’ facing Canada 

Prof. Vik Singh, an expert in Canada-US trade relationships and housing markets said that improving the health of the housing market and addressing tariffs cannot happen at the same time. “We are in this paradox right now.” 

The challenge of addressing those competing priorities is already well known in the industry. In a February press release, the Canadian Home Builders Association (CHBA) said Trump’s tariffs, and potential future countermeasures, could have “substantial effects on the costs of home construction,” particularly when it comes to the cost of imported construction materials such as aluminum, steel and ceramics.  

“We aren’t addressing the elephant in the room: the imbalance between supply and demand,” said Prof. Singh. With high building costs, he said that investors don't see a reason to invest in new housing starts. “It's a messy situation.” 

Singh warned about the tariffs having a particularly potent effect in Ontario, where recently re-elected premier Doug Ford has become one of the most vocal opponents of Trump’s tariff policies. Publications like the New York Times have labelled Ford “Captain Canada”, noting his major support of counter-tariffs. 

“We have to run through every tariff and minimize the pain for Canadians, maximize the pain for Americans,” Ford told reporters last week. 

But Prof. Singh warned that Ontario’s housing market will also feel the pain. “Ontario is in deep trouble.” 

In Toronto where average prices for homes are over $1 million, Singh said the proposed GST cuts are “a cherry on top” but won't make much of a difference. 

It remains to be seen whether Ford’s zeal in opposing Trump’s tariffs will push previous promises, including a 2022 pledge to build 1.5 million homes over a 10-year period, to the background.  

The way forward on tackling the housing crisis amid trade war 

Singh said that before the housing market can truly heal, tariffs will have to be addressed. Relying on other partners and becoming less dependent on the US will be the way forward, he said. 

“We have to create an ecosystem.” 

For now, Zaide said brokers should stay on top of the changing news to educate buyers and referral partners. “Educating your referral partners will make sure that they can provide value to their client, so they're not scared off in the market,” said Zaide, “The outlook of the market is changing so rapidly right now.” 

CMP

We hope you are finding our Blog informative and enjoyable to read while keeping you up to date with the ever changing real estate market. 

Please feel free to contact me via Direct/Text or e-mail at any time and my team will be pleased to assist you, family members and friends with all your real estate needs. Referrals are always welcome and rewarded!

Are you ready for the coming renewal wave?

Mortgage renewals are taking centre stage this year, and the spotlight is on brokers to help clients navigate the process.  

Figures from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation show that 1.2 million mortgages are coming up for renewal. Notably, 85% of these were signed when the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) overnight rate was at or below 1%.

“For those who have a mortgage, the big worry is the interest rate they’ll have to pay when they renew,” Carolyn Rogers, senior deputy governor of the BoC, said in remarks to the Economic Club of Canada late last year. “Even with recent declines in interest rates, most of those borrowers will likely face a significant increase in their payment.”

Pierre Martin, vice president of residential mortgage lending at alternative lender Home Trust, agrees. He noted that the prolonged high-rate environment following the COVID-19 pandemic has put many renewing borrowers across Canada in a more difficult financial position this year.

“Coming into 2025, we have seen a drastic increase in interest rates across residential mortgages from where it was at the start of the pandemic,” said Martin.  

An opportunity for brokers

Already feeling the squeeze from rising prices and global economic uncertainty, the prospect of higher payments upon renewal is giving many borrowers across Canada financial jitters.

In fact, a report from Mortgage Professionals Canada found that nearly seven out of 10 borrowers with terms ending this year are anxious about the upcoming renewal process.

With so many mortgage borrowers feeling anxious about their upcoming renewals, there is an opportunity for brokers to position themselves as advisors who can help clients navigate toward the best renewal solution for their financial circumstances.

“Renewal brings an opportunity to review and assess a client’s situation,” said Martin. “Brokers can demonstrate their expertise and professionalism by finding the right solution for their needs.”

One effective strategy for brokers is to proactively engage clients in renewal discussions well before their current terms expire. Ideally, brokers maintain regular contact with clients throughout the mortgage term. This proactive approach not only strengthens relationships but also enhances brokers' understanding of their clients' profiles, enabling them to identify the best lending solutions.

To keep in touch, brokers should maintain an active database of updated client information. Whether a simple spreadsheet or a more robust customer relationship management (CRM) platform, a database will make setting reminders to keep your clients informed easier. Useful information to communicate includes important account milestones, changes to the overnight rate, trends in the housing market or macroeconomic events that can impact lending activity. You can also store notes on changes to your clients' circumstances in your database, which will be valuable when their mortgage comes up for renewal.

Through regular communication with their clients, brokers can evaluate the best options available for their circumstances at renewal time, whether from a traditional lender or an alternative lender with a broader risk appetite framework, such as Home Trust.

Growing in the alternative space

Having been a leader in the alternative lending space for nearly four decades, Martin said Home Trust understands how large and diverse the segment is.

“Alternative borrowers include business owners, newcomers in the early stages of building or rebuilding their credit history, and folks with unique life experiences precluding them from more traditional mortgage channels,” said Martin.

As a result, alternative lending scenarios can vary widely, from straightforward cases involving "near-prime" credit scores to more complex financial situations.

“These are borrowers looking for solutions beyond those offered through more traditional ‘prime’ mortgage and borrowing channels,” said Martin.

And because every renewal scenario is going to be different, it’s important that brokers work with a lender focused on providing solutions. These lenders will work with brokers to get their clients' full picture and help them shepherd the deal to closing.

In this context, Home Trust stands out as a strong alternative lending partner due to its comprehensive support and solution-oriented approach to servicing. Their sales and underwriting teams strive to understand borrowers' complete financial stories to provide the best solutions and the most competitive rates in the alternative lending market.

These solutions include extended ratios that can go up to 60% total debt service (TDS) compared to the 44% TDS generally offered by the big five banks.

Moreover, Home Trust has made great strides in streamlining their approval process by enhancing the coordination between front-line sales, underwriting and operations teams. This commitment to continuous improvement ensures that Home Trust broker partners can expect a more seamless and responsive experience for their renewal clients.

“Renewal has always been a very important process for us,” said Martin. “If borrowers are experiencing challenges in this renewal environment, then we’re ready to help you find the best solution that matches their goals and profile.”

The alternative pioneer

Not all lenders are created equal. As the renewal wave approaches, brokers might want to rethink what they can expect from an alternative lender.

Home Trust’s reputation for common-sense, solutions-oriented lending stands out in the mortgage landscape.

And this year, with a more streamlined approval process and competitive rates, Home Trust is gearing up to help you tackle your renewal pipeline and grow your alternative book.

CMP

We hope you are finding our Blog informative and enjoyable to read while keeping you up to date with the ever changing real estate market. 

Please feel free to contact me via Direct/Text or e-mail at any time and my team will be pleased to assist you, family members and friends with all your real estate needs. Referrals are always welcome and rewarded!

Canada's cottage prices still climbing as buyers wait and watch

Canada’s recreational property market may no longer be surging like it did during the pandemic, but prices are still rising – just at a much more moderate pace.

The median price of a single-family home in Canada’s recreational regions is expected to rise 4.0% in 2025 to $652,808, up from $627,700 in 2024, according to a new forecast from Royal LePage. Despite a slowdown in activity, demand continues to outstrip supply in many parts of the country.

“The pandemic-era scramble for recreational properties, once reminiscent of a modern-day gold rush, has thankfully eased – along with the chaos of bidding wars and thin inventories,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage. “Demand for recreational properties among Canadians, and the lifestyle they offer, remains strong but balanced.”

He noted that unlike the primary residential market, recreational real estate tends to be less sensitive to economic turbulence.

“While the mainstream market is more sensitive to economic shifts, demand in the recreational segment remains steadfast, even during periods of market hesitation,” Soper explained in the report.

From 2021 to 2023, demand for cottages soared as Canadians sought out waterfront and rural escapes during lockdowns and embraced remote work. That surge drove property values to record highs. Now, Soper says the market is returning to more normal, sustainable growth.

“After three years of double-digit price growth during and after the pandemic, recreational property values have settled slightly below peak for the 2025 season,” he said. “Looking ahead, recreational property prices are expected to rise modestly, driven by ongoing supply shortages. New cottages and cabins aren't being built fast enough to meet buyer demand, which will continue to support long-term price growth.”

In 2024, the weighted median price of a single-family home in recreational regions rose 2.3% year over year to $627,700. However, not all property types moved in the same direction. Waterfront home prices declined by 3.6% to $1,063,400, while the median price of a standard condominium remained nearly unchanged, rising just 0.2% to $431,700.

The report also includes findings from a survey of 153 Royal LePage recreational real estate professionals across Canada. Nearly half (46%) said buyer demand was unchanged compared to the same time last year, while 24% said it had increased and another 24% reported a decrease.

Inventory remains limited in many markets, with 33% of agents reporting lower supply than last year, and 39% saying inventory was about the same. Meanwhile, 55% said average days on market had increased in their region.

Soper explained that many recreational property buyers are less reactive to short-term economic changes because they typically have more financial flexibility.

“Buyers in this space often have the disposable income or savings to move ahead with major purchases, making them less reactive to broader financial shifts,” Soper said.

Still, geopolitical tensions and domestic uncertainty are causing some buyers to hesitate.

“In a time of uncertainty both at home and abroad, Royal LePage agents in multiple recreational markets have observed a withdrawal from some buyers—not as a result of their personal financial circumstances, but rather to adopt a wait-and-see approach as they seek clarity on the US trade dispute and the upcoming federal election,” Soper said.

CMP

We hope you are finding our Blog informative and enjoyable to read while keeping you up to date with the ever changing real estate market. 

Please feel free to contact me via Direct/Text or e-mail at any time and my team will be pleased to assist you, family members and friends with all your real estate needs. Referrals are always welcome and rewarded!